摘要
我国尾矿库数量众多,近年来尾矿库溃坝事故时有发生,一旦溃坝会造成比较严重的人员伤亡和财产损失,因此对尾矿库风险进行科学的评估具有重要的现实意义。本文首先建立尾矿库风险评价指标体系,并给出各指标分级标准;其次,既考虑各指标对尾矿库风险的影响程度,又考虑各指标之间的结构重要度,将最优最劣法(BWM)与决策实验室法(DEMATEL)结合,构建指标权重评价模型,同时又对各指标之间的因果耦合关系进行了分析,得到影响尾矿库安全的本质因素:安全投入占比、安全教育培训、事故应急救援、安全管理机构、事故监测预警、堆积容量;容易受到影响并可作为监测指标的因素:浸润线高度、干滩长度、排渗设施完好率、管涌、流土出现地点数、安全超高、排洪设施完好率;最后采用多准则妥协解排序方法(VIKOR)对尾矿库溃坝风险进行评价。以付冲沟尾矿库为实例进行分析,风险等级为Ⅱ级(较安全),与实际情况相符,证明该模型可用于尾矿库风险评价。
There are a large number of tailings ponds in China,and in recent years,tailings dam collapse accidents have occurred from time to time,and once the tailings dam collapses,it will cause relatively serious casualties and property losses,so it is of great practical significance to scientifically evaluation the risk of tailings dam collapse.This paper first establishes the tailings pond risk evaluation index system,and gives the grading criteria of each index;Secondly,considering the degree of influence of each index on the tailings pond and the structural importance between the indicators,and the best worst method(BWM)and the Decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL)are combined to construct the BWM-DEMATEL index weight evaluation model.And the causal coupling relationship between the indicators was analyzed,and the essential factors affecting the safety of tailings pond were:proportion of safety input,safety education and training,accident emergency rescue,safety management agency,safety monitoring and early warning,stacked capacity;Factors that are susceptible to impact and can be used as monitoring indicators include:the height of the phreatic line,the length of the beach width,the intact rate of the drainage facilities,the number of places where the flow pipe surges and soil appears,free height,and the integrity of the drainage facilities;Finally,the risk of dam failure in tailings pond was comprehensively evaluated by Vlsekrijumska OptimizacijaⅠKompromisno Resenje,(VIKOR)method,and case analysis was carried out.Taking the Fuchonggou tailings pond as an example for analysis,the risk level is LevelⅡ(safer),which is consistent with the actual situation,which proves that the model can be used for tailings pond risk evaluation.
作者
王焕
郑欣
于雁武
许开立
WANG Huan;ZHENG Xin;YU Yanwu;XU Kaili(School of Resources and Civil Engineering,Northeastern University,Shenyang 110819,China;School of Environmental and Safety Engineering,North Central University,Taiyuan 030051,China)
出处
《金属矿山》
CAS
北大核心
2022年第12期238-245,共8页
Metal Mine
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(编号:2021YFC3001303)
公安部重点实验室项目(编号:2021FMKFKT05)。
