摘要
选取成都市六类主要农产品为研究对象,搜集2011-2020年六类主要农产品产量数据,并结合其冷链流通率,得到其冷链物流需求量。在此基础上,采用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型对成都市2021-2025年主要农产品冷链物流需求量进行预测。研究结果表明,基于GM(1,1)模型的预测结果准确性较好,预测精度符合要求,可以有效地反映出成都市主要农产品冷链物流需求量的整体变化趋势。通过GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,可以为促进成都市农产品冷链物流发展提出相关建议。
Six types of major agricultural products in Chengdu were selected as the research objects,their production data from 2011 to 2020 were collected,and combined with their cold chain circulation rates,the demand for cold chain logistics was obtained.On this basis,the GM(1,1)gray forecasting model was used to predict the demand for cold chain logistics of major agricultural products in Chengdu from 2021 to 2025.The results show that the prediction results based on the GM(1,1)model are accurate and meet the requirements,which can effectively reflect the overall change trend of the demand for cold chain logistics of major agricultural products in Chengdu.Through the GM(1,1)gray prediction model,relevant suggestions are put forward to promote the development of cold chain logistics of agricultural products in Chengdu.
作者
朱梦琳
ZHU Meng-lin(School of Artificial Intelligence,Neijiang Normal University,Neijiang 641100,China)
出处
《物流工程与管理》
2022年第11期69-72,78,共5页
Logistics Engineering and Management
基金
内江师范学院2022年度校级科研项目(2022QN29)。
关键词
农产品冷链物流
GM(1
1)模型
需求预测
成都市
agricultural products cold chain logistics
GM(1,1)model
demand prediction
Chengdu
