摘要
准确把握老龄化对于居民消费的影响,对于中国扩大内需、构建国内国际双循环的良好格局具有重要意义。通过建立引入老龄化的消费理论模型,提出老龄化对居民消费支出具有“储蓄效应”和“边际效应”两种效应;基于省级面板数据进行实证分析,利用“半变系数动态面板广义矩估计”方法解决含固定效应的半变系数动态面板模型中的内生性问题,得到具有稳健性的结论。研究发现:“边际效应”表现为老龄化通过降低居民边际消费倾向抑制居民消费,不过在老龄化程度较高时边际消费倾向继续下行的速度有所减缓;“储蓄效应”表现为老龄化对居民消费支出具有直接的促进作用。进一步地,本文对“边际效应”产生的机制进行了探讨,认为预防性储蓄动机和收入分配差距扩大是产生“边际效应”的主要原因,实证分析证实了收入差距是老龄化抑制居民边际消费倾向的中介变量,从而揭示在老龄化背景下实现共同富裕是提振消费的必由路径。
In the context of increasing population aging,it is of great importance to accurately interpret the influence of population aging on households’consumption for China to stimulate domestic demand and accelerate the establishment of a“dual circulation”development pattern.Classical consumption theories,such as Life Cycle Theory,Household Saving Demand Model,and Liquidity Constraint Theory,reveal that consumption behavior is affected by age stage or aging,providing the basis for the understanding of the relationship between households’consumption and age structure.Without ideal assumptions,however,the influence of population aging on households’consumption could not be clearly deduced.In fact,existing empirical literature,whether based on macro or micro data,are far from consensus on this issue.Moreover,the existing literature has not fully revealed the mechanism of population aging on households’consumption.On the one hand,most studies take the consumption rate(or the savings rate)as explained variable,which can only examine the effect of population aging on the average consumption propensity,not marginal consumption propensity.On the other hand,those that taking consumption expenditure as explained variable also ignore the effect of population aging on marginal consumption propensity if they directly add population aging in consumption function.Establishing a theoretical consumption model introducing population aging,this paper puts forward the research hypotheses that population aging has double effects on households’consumption,i.e.,“saving effect”(SE for short)and“marginal effect”(ME for short).SE is resulted from savings of the elderly,regardless of current income,and ME reveals the effect of population aging on marginal consumption propensity,the degree of which is related to current income.The theoretical model extends the classical consumption function,showing that population aging affects both autonomous consumption and induced consumption,which comprehensively reveals the path of population aging on households’consumption and helps to fill the gap of existing literature on mechanism exploration.Nonparametric function is used to fit the relationship between population aging and the marginal consumption propensity so that it captures nonlinearity better than the parametric model with interactive terms and ensures the theoretical feature of the marginal consumption propensity.A two-step GMM estimation is proposed to solve the endogeneity problem in the semi-varying coefficient dynamic panel data model with fixed effect.Besides population aging,both the direct effect and the indirect effect of control variables are also considered in model specification.Based on the provincial panel data during the period from 2002 to 2020,this paper empirically tests the above-mentioned research hypotheses.It is found that double effects are significant,i.e.,population aging has a positive SE on households’consumption,and a nonlinearly negative ME on marginal consumption propensity,and the ME will be weakened after population aging deepening to a higher level(about after 18%).By changing the form of empirical model and the measurement indicator of population aging,the paper verifies the robustness of its empirical results.Furthermore,this paper discusses the mechanism resulting in double effects.SE conforms to Life Cycle Theory,and ME is mainly determined by precautionary saving motivation and income gap between the youth and the elderly.The empirical test verifies that income gap is the mediator between population aging and marginal consumption propensity,which indicates that controlling income inequality between generations is the necessary path to boost consumption in the era of population aging.
作者
李静萍
陈南
LI Jing-ping;CHEN Nan(Center for Applied Statistics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;School of Statistics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第11期26-37,共12页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“健康中国2030背景下的健康老龄化体系优化研究”(20JZD 023)
国家社会科学基金一般项目“分享经济的统计测度研究”(18BTJ009)。
关键词
老龄化
居民消费
边际消费倾向
半变系数动态面板模型
收入差距
population aging
household consumption
marginal consumption propensity
semi-varying coefficient dynamic panel data model
income gap
