摘要
目的研究并阐明中国大陆恙虫病流行趋势和时空分布特征,为恙虫病的预防和控制提供参考依据。方法根据1952-1989年和2006-2017年中国大陆恙虫病疫情报告数据,采用描述性流行病学方法、空间自相关分析和ArcGIS 10.4软件的可视化技术等,全面系统研究中国大陆恙虫病流行及时空分布特征,并确定高风险地区。结果在1952-1989年和2006-2017年期间,我国累计报道恙虫病病例156234例,死亡180例。1952-1989年的年均发病率0.13/10万。2006年以后,年均发病率急剧上升,由2006年的0.09/10万上升到2017年的1.62/10万,增长了18倍,年平均增长率为33%。流行季节仍以夏季和秋冬为主,多数病例主要集中在10月,女性发病率高于男性(χ^ (2)=168.34,P<0.001)。云南、安徽、广东、福建、江苏、山东、广西和四川8个省(自治区)的病例数最多,占全国总病例数的91.31%。全局空间自相关分析结果表明,在全国范围内恙虫病整体上存在着空间正相关,具有空间聚集性(I=0.085,P<0.05)。局部空间自相关分析结果显示,广西、福建及其周边地区为“热点区域”,是恙虫病高发区。结论1952-1989年和2006-2017年我国恙虫病发病率存在逐年升高趋势,病例以夏季型和秋冬型为主。空间自相关分析可以及时发现该病的聚集情况并确定高发区和危险区。
The present study is an attempt to illustrate the prevalent trend and spatiotemporal distribution of scrub typhus(tsutsugamushi disease)in China's Mainland,to provide scientific evidences for the surveillance and control of the disease.Based on the reported cases of scrub typhus in 1952-1989 and 2006-2017,the descriptive epidemiological method and spatial autocorrelation,together with ArcGIS software and GeoDa software for the visualization of the related results,were used to make a comprehensive and systematic study on the prevalent trend and spatiotemporal distribution of scrub typhus in China's Mainland,and then identify some high-risk areas in the country.A total of 156234 cases of scrub typhus(including 180 deaths)were reported in China's Mainland in 1952-1989 and 2006-2017.The average annual incidence was 0.13 cases/100000 population during 1952-1989.Since 2006,the annual morbidity has sharply increased 18 times from 0.09/100000 to 1.62/100000 with 33%of annual growth rate.The prevalent seasons belonged to the summer and the autumn-winter with most cases occurring in October,and the females’morbidity was higher than the males’one(χ^ (2)=168.34,P<0.001).The majority of cases(91.31%)were reported in eight provinces,including Yunnan,Anhui,Guangdong,Fujian,Jiangsu,Shandong,Guangxi and Sichuan.The spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that a spatial positive correlation existed in the prevalence of scrub typhus on a national scale,which had the characteristic of aggregated distribution(I=0.085,P<0.05).The local indicators of spatial association(LISA)indicated that Guangxi and Fujian were identified as the“hotspot areas”of morbidity,and these“hotspot areas”were the high-risk areas of scrub typhus.The morbidity(incidence)of scrub typhus in China's Mainland shows a gradual increase in 1952-1989 and 2006-2017 with an obvious seasonal fluctuation.The cases mainly belong to the summer type and the autumn-winter type.The spatial autocorrelation analysis can be used to timely find the aggregation of scrub typhus and then identify the high-risk areas of the disease.
作者
彭培英
徐蕾
王谷仙
何文渊
晏廷亮
郭宪国
PENG Pei-ying;XU Lei;WANG Gu-xian;HE Wen-yuan;YAN Ting-liang;GUO Xian-guo(Institute of Microbiology of Qujing Medical College,Qujing 655011,China;Institute of Pathogens and Vectors,Dali University,Yunnan Provincial Key Laboratory for Zoonosis Control and Prevention,Dali 671000,China)
出处
《中国人兽共患病学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第9期818-823,829,共7页
Chinese Journal of Zoonoses
基金
云南省基础研究专项(云南省自然科学基金)(No.202101AU070003)
云南省教育厅科学研究基金(No.2021J1115)联合资助。
关键词
恙虫病
流行病学
空间自相关
中国
scrub typhus
epidemiology
spatial autocorrelation
China
