沿黄城市生态保护与高质量发展的耦合协调性分析与预测被引量：8

Analysis and Prediction of Coupling Coordination between Ecological Protection and High-Quality Development in Cities along the Yellow River

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摘要构建经济与生态综合评价指标体系,采用耦合协调度模型及地理探测器探究了2011—2018年沿黄城市耦合协调度发展的时空演变及影响因素,并运用灰色GM(1,1)模型对耦合协调度进行预测。结果表明:(1)2011—2018年,沿黄地区生态与经济发展水平均呈增长趋势,下游经济高质量发展水平高于中上游地区,而在生态环境保护方面,上游表现最为良好。(2)经济与生态二者发展水平等级对应程度较弱,存在时空上的差异性,耦合协调度呈现先上升后下降的发展趋势,流域整体处于中度协调水平。(3)耦合协调水平受多种影响因素共同作用,作用程度存在一定的地域性和差异性。(4)从预测结果来看,耦合协调发展水平在短期内保持平稳上升趋势,但总体提升与演进的速度较为缓慢,处于中、高度协调过渡阶段,存在较大的提升空间。 The comprehensive evaluation index system of economy and ecology is constructed,and the coupling coordination model and geographic detector are used to explore the temporal and spatial pattern evolution and influencing factors of the coupling coordination degree development of cities along the Yellow River from 2011 to 2018.Finally,the grey GM(1,1)model is used to predict the coupling coordination degree of the watershed.The results indicate:(1)From 2011 to 2018,the ecological and economic development level of the areas along the Yellow River showed an increasing trend.Specifically,the high-quality economic development level of the lower reaches was higher than that of the middle and upper reaches,while the upper reaches performed the best in terms of ecological and environmental protection.(2)The corresponding degree of economic and ecological development levels is weak,there are temporal and spatial differences,the coupling coordination degree shows a development trend of first rising and then falling,and the whole basin is at a moderate coordination level.(3)The level of coupling coordination is affected by many factors,and the degree of influence is regional and different.(4)From the prediction results,the development level of coupling and coordination maintains a stable upward trend in the short term,but the overall improvement and evolution speed is relatively slow,which is in the transition stage of medium and high coordination,and there is a large room for improvement.

作者康艳青刘羽晴朱永明 KANG Yanqing;LIU Yuqing;ZHU Yongming(School of Management Engineering,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou Henan 450001,China)

机构地区郑州大学管理工程学院

出处《生态经济》北大核心 2022年第10期190-197,共8页 Ecological Economy

基金河南省哲学社会科学规划年度项目“黄河流域生态补偿长效机制与路径研究”(2020CJJ099) 中国工程院重大咨询研究项目“黄河流域绿色高质量发展的产业结构优化与城市发展战略”(2020-ZD-18-5)。

关键词黄河沿线城市高质量发展耦合协调度地理探测器驱动因素 cities along the Yellow River high quality development coupling and coordination degree geographic detectors driving factors

分类号 X196 [环境科学与工程—环境科学] F062.2 [经济管理—政治经济学]