摘要
热带区域的城市土地利用变化具有独特特征,通过多情景模拟可以了解其变化特征及未来的发展趋势,从而有效引导土地规划,为区域的可持续发展提供依据。利用FLUS模型,基于2014和2018年的Landsat遥感影像解译土地利用数据,结合自然、交通、社会发展及POI等14个变量作为驱动因子对进行土地利用变化模拟。同时,分别以自然发展、耕地保护及生态控制三种情景模拟预测2030年的三亚市土地利用变化情况。结果表明:FLUS模型模拟精度高,Kappa系数为0.82,总体分类精度为87.17%;基于三种情景的模拟及比较分析发现,生态控制情景下林地与水域等生态空间得到保护,耕地总量条件得以满足,同时有效遏制了建设用地扩张,因此基于FLUS模型的生态控制情景较适用于三亚市的未来土地利用发展策略。
Urban land use change in tropic regions has unique characteristics;its change and future development can be understood through multi-scenario simulation, so as to effectively guide the land planning and provide a basis for sustainable development of the region. In this study, FLUS model was used to simulate Sanya land use change based on land use data from Landsat in 2014 and 2018, and 14 driving factors including natural, traffic, social development and POI factors.Furthermore, three scenarios of natural development, cultivated land protection and ecological control were used to simulate and predict the Sanya land use change in 2030. The results show that the FLUS model has high accuracy in simulation, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.82 and an overall classification accuracy of 87.17%. Under the ecological control scenario, the ecological space such as forest and water area is protected, the total amount of cultivated land is guaranteed, and the expansion of construction land is effectively curbed. Therefore, the ecological control scenario based on FLUS model is more suitable for the future land use development strategy of Sanya city.
作者
张亦清
韩念龙
张伟璇
黎兴强
ZHANG Yiqing;HAN Nianlong;ZHANG Weixuan;LI Xingqiang(School of Public Administration,University of Hainan,Haikou 570228,China;School of Geography and Tourism,Huizhou University,Huizhou 516007,China)
出处
《生态科学》
CSCD
2022年第6期52-62,共11页
Ecological Science
基金
国家社科基金(21XGL019)
海南省自然科学基金(421RC1034)
海南大学科研启动基金(kyqdsk1926)。
关键词
FLUS
土地利用变化
情景模拟
生态控制
FLUS model
land use change
scenario simulation
ecological control
