摘要
针对五强溪水库近坝区洪水预报难度大、预报精度难以满足实际需求的现状,基于历史暴雨中心分布与流域产汇流特征划分单元流域,采用三水源新安江模型构建入库洪水预报新方案进行参数率定和历史洪水模拟,并综合剖析了洪水预报误差的主要原因。研究结果表明,构建的洪水预报新方案能够取得较高的洪水预报精度,在2021年实时洪水预报作业中取得了良好的应用效果。流域内水利工程泄洪资料的缺失是目前造成洪量及洪峰模拟误差的主要原因。
Flood forecasting in the near-dam area of reservoir is challenging,and the accuracy of forecasting scheme usually cannot fulfill the requirements of flood prevention and scheduling.To address these problems,the entire near-dam area of Wuqiangxi Reservoir was divided into ten subbasins based on the distribution of historical rainfall centers and the characteristics of runoff generation and concentration.A new forecasting scheme was constructed using the three-source Xin’anjiang model,the model parameters were calibrated and the main causes of simulation errors were investigated based on typical flood events.The results show that the method proposed in this study can achieve the high accuracy of flood forecasting and is well applied in the real-time flood forecasting operation in 2021.The results also indicate that the lack of information on flood releases from water conservancy projects is the main cause of errors in runoff and peak flows.
作者
沙永兵
黄迎春
石彬
龚定
邝录章
肖杨
李巧玲
SHA Yongbing;HUANG Yingchun;SHI Bin;GONG Ding;KUANG Luzhang;XIAO Yang;LI Qiaoling(Wuling Power Corporation Ltd.,Changsha 410004,China;China Hunan Provincial Hydropower Intelligent Engineering Technology Research Center,Changsha 410004,China;College of Civil Engineering,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350108,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)
出处
《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第4期58-65,共8页
Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)
基金
“十三五”国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1508102)
国家自然科学基金(51909059,52079035)
江苏省自然科学基金(BK20190492)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项(B200202036)。
关键词
洪水预报
近坝区
单元流域划分
新安江模型
五强溪水库
flood forecasting
near-dam area
unit watershed division
Xin’anjiang model
Wuqiangxi Reservoir
