摘要
目的探讨并构建572例宫颈癌患者预后的预测模型。方法选取浙江省绍兴市妇幼保健院2006年6月至2014年6月收治的宫颈癌患者,对患者的临床资料进行回顾性分析,应用SPSS 25.0软件和R 3.6.1软件及其软件包进行统计分析,构建预测模型并进行评价。结果TNM分期为宫颈癌预后的独立因素。根据COX比例风险模型建立年龄、TNM分期相关预后列线图,C-index为0.682;3年生存率ROC曲线下面积(AUC)为0.760,5年生存率ROC曲线AUC为0.830,模型准确性尚可;Calibration曲线显示模型一致性尚可;Kaplan-Meier生存曲线显示不同年龄、TNM分期差异有统计学意义。结论宫颈癌患者预后列线图模型准确性尚可,可简单快速运用年龄、TNM分期评判宫颈癌患者的预后,对临床医务人员简单快速、个体化的预后分析具有显著意义。
Objective To explore and construct the prognosis prediction model of 572 patients with cervical cancer.Methods Patients with cervical cancer who were admitted to Shaoxing Maternal and Child Health Hospital from June 2006 to June 2014 were selected to collect clinical data for retrospective analysis.The SPSS 25.0 software and R 3.6.1 software and its software package were used for statistical analysis,and the prediction model was built and evaluated.Results The TNM staging was an independent prognostic factor of cervical cancer.According to the COX proportional risk model,the age and TNM staging-related prognostic nomograms were established,and the C-index was 0.682.The area under the ROC curve(AUC)of 3-year survival rate was 0.760,and the AUC of 5-year survival rate was 0.830,indicating that the accuracy of the model was fair.The Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed that different TNM stagings and ages were statistically significant.Conclusion The accuracy of the prognostic nomogram model of cervical cancer patients is fair,and it can be used simply and quickly to evaluate the prognosis of cervical cancer patients by the age and TNM staging,which has significant significance for simple,rapid and individual prognostic analysis of clinical medical staff.
作者
王爱萍
徐人杰
潘海滔
WANG Aiping;XU Renjie;PAN Haitao(Department of Gynecology,Shaoxing Maternal and Child Health Hospital,Shaoxing312000,China;Department of Pharmacy,Shaoxing Maternal and Child Health Hospital,Shaoxing312000,China)
出处
《中国现代医生》
2022年第9期50-54,共5页
China Modern Doctor
基金
国家自然科学基金(81701522)。
