摘要
生育政策调整是应对人口老龄化的重要举措,如何有效激发农村育龄群体的三孩生育意愿是政策落地的关键。本文认为农民家庭三孩生育意愿具有较大的政策激励潜力,故而借鉴理性选择理论建立农民家庭禀赋与社会保障对三孩生育意愿的分析框架,利用2017年中国综合社会调查相关数据,构建Biprobit模型进行实证检验分析框架。主要结论有:家庭经济资本与家庭人力资本对农民三孩生育意愿具有显著的正向影响,家庭社会资本对农民三孩生育意愿具有显著的负向影响;医疗保险对农民三孩生育意愿产生“挤入”效应,养老保险对农民三孩生育意愿产生“挤出”效应。主要建议有:完善社会保障制度以提升生育福利,提高家庭经济能力以降低生育成本,制定政策优化代际合作育儿人力资本,引导树立科学的人口资源生育观等。
The adjustment of fertility policy is an important measure to solve the problem of increasing aging in China and its key is how to effectively stimulate the willingness of three-children of the childbearing age groups in the rural. It is believed that the willingness of farmer families to have three children has great potential by policy incentives. This paper, based on the theory of rational choice, builds an analysis framework to estimate the effects of rural family endowment and social security on the willingness to have three children by applying Biprobit model to analyze the data of 2017 China Comprehensive Social Survey. The main conclusions show that on one hand, family economic capital and family human capital have a significant positive impact on farmers’ willingness to have three children, while family social capital has significant negative impact on it. On the other hand the medical insurance has a crowding-in effect on rural couples’ three children fertility intention, pension insurance has a crowding-out effect on their willingness to have three children. According suggestions are the Improvement of the social security system to enhance maternity benefits, the raise of family financial capacity to reduce childbirth costs, the policies to optimize the human capital of inter-generational cooperative parenting and the establishment of a scientific concept of population resources and fertility, etc.
作者
于勇
喻明
YU Yong;YU Ming(School of Public Administration and Law,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha 410128)
出处
《南方人口》
CSSCI
2022年第2期70-80,共11页
South China Population
基金
国家社科基金项目“M-health导向下农村公共卫生服务供给侧创新研究”(16BGL179)
湖南省教育厅双一流学科重点项目“乡村振兴中农民健康服务供给水平测度及优化路径研究”(19A240)。
关键词
农民
家庭禀赋
社会保障
三孩生育意愿
Farmers
Family endowments
Social security
Three-child fertility intention
