摘要
基于InVEST模型的产水模块对2000-2015年青海湖流域的产水量进行模拟,结合未来气候情景数据和土地利用数据对2025-2050年产水量的时空分布进行预测分析.结果表明, 2000-2015年青海湖流域产水量呈波动增加的趋势;2000-2050年子流域产水深度的低值区主要分布在青海湖湖区的西部,相对高值区位于湖区的东南部和东北部的祁连山区;代表性浓度路径(RCP) 4.5情景下2025-2050年青海湖流域产水量呈波动减小的趋势, RCP 8.5情景下产水量呈波动增加趋势;两种情景下不同土地利用覆被类型上的产水深度从高到低依次为耕地、建设用地、草地、林地、水域、未利用地;未来气候变化对产水量的影响显著,土地利用覆被变化对产水量的影响较小.
Based on the water production module of the InVEST model, the water production of Qinghai Lake Basin was from 2000 to 2015 simulated, and the spatial and temporal distribution of annual water production from 2025 to 2050 by forecasted and analyzed, in combination with the future climate scenario data and land use data. The results showed that from 2000 to 2015 the water yield of the Qinghai Lake Basin presented an increasing trend of fluctuation;from 2000 to 2050, the low value areas of water yield depth of sub basin were mainly distributed in the west of the lake region, and the relatively high value areas located in the southeast and northeast Qilian Mountains of the lake region;under the situation of RCP(representative concentration pathway) 4.5, the water yield of the Qinghai Lake Basin showed a decreasing trend of fluctuation from 2025 to 2050, and the RCP 8.5 a decreasing trend;the water yield showed a fluctuating increasing trend under the two scenarios;the water yield depth of different land uses and cover types from high to low was, respectively, cultivated land, construction land, grassland, woodland, water area and unused land;the impact of future climate change on the water yield was significant,while the impact of land use and cover change on it was small.
作者
丁家宝
张福平
张元
宁亚洲
曾攀儒
DING Jia-bao;ZHANG Fu-ping;ZHANG Yuan;NING Ya-zhou;ZENG Pan-m(School of Geography and Tourism,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi'an 710119,China)
出处
《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第1期47-56,共10页
Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)
基金
陕西省自然科学基金面上项目(2018JM4020)
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0404300)
中国科学院前沿科学重点研究项目(QYZDJ-SSW-DQC031)
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(21YJAZH110)。
