摘要
目的:采用随机森林算法分析新冠疫情期间大学生心理状况的影响因素。方法:利用问卷星2020年3月1日-4月1日,对北京某大学在读的一至四年级大学生进行匿名在线调查数据,用随机森林模型对自变量进行重要性排序并降维。使用逐步随机森林模型进行变量筛选,将筛选后的变量纳入Logistics回归。结果:逐步随机森林模型结果显示,心理状况得分模型和总体项目数模型的变量数均为5时袋外估算误差率最低。重要性排序前五的影响心理状况得分的变量分别为年级、父亲的文化程度、母亲的文化程度、民族、是否发生过重大生活事件;总体项目数的变量为年级、母亲的文化程度、父亲的文化程度、是否发生过重大生活事件、居住地。Logistics回归模型显示,疫情期间少数民族大学生存在心理问题的风险比汉族大学生低71%,大二年级存在心理问题风险是大一年级的2.23倍。结论:随机森林模型与Logistics回归相结合是有效进行数据分析的路径。影响大学生新冠疫情期间患心理问题的因素是年级、父亲的文化程度、母亲的文化程度、民族、是否发生过重大生活事件、居住地。建议对学生进行疫情后的心理状态调查、评估和指导,通过多种方式开展对在校大学生有针对性的措施。
Objective To explore the influencing factors of mental health among college students under the COVID-19 epidemics based on random forest model.Methods College students in one university were conducted with anonymous online survey from March 1,2020 to April 1,2020.The random forest model was used to sort the importance and reduce dimension of the independent variables.The logistic regression was used for the variable set with the smallest random forest model random forest model's error rate.Results The results of the stepwise random forest analysis showed that the estimated error rate was the lowest when the number of variables was 5.The top five variables in the important ranking chart of mental health score were grade,fathers education level,mothers education level,nationality,and major negative life events.The top five variables in the important ranking chart of mental health items were grade,mothers education level,fathers education level,major negative life events,and residence area.Logistic regression model showed that the risk of mental health of minority college students was 71% lower than that of Han students during the COVID-19 epidemic period,and the risk of mental health in 2nd grade was 2.23 times higher than that in freshmen.Conclusion The combination of random forest model and logistic regression is the effective path to data analysis.The factors that affect the mental health of college students during the period of COVID-19 epidemic were grade,fathers education level,mothers education level,nationality,major negative life events and residence.It is suggested to implement investigation,evaluation and guidance on the students’mental status,and carry out various targeted measures.
作者
王振杰
彭求实
陈禹江
郭姿乐
Wang Zhenjie(Institute of Population Research,Peking University,Beijing,P.R.China)
出处
《中国卫生事业管理》
北大核心
2022年第3期215-220,共6页
Chinese Health Service Management
基金
英国研究与创新基金会全球挑战研究基金(Research Grant,RCUK)"Building capacity for the future city in developing countries(PEAK)"(ES/P011055/1)。
