摘要
【目的】探究山地重点开发区景观生态风险时空演变特征,模拟预测景观生态风险变化趋势,为缓解中小城镇生态保护和建设开发矛盾、促进中小城镇土地资源可持续利用、发挥中小城镇区域中枢功能、推动区域高质量发展提供支持。【方法】以2000、2010、2020年土地覆被数据为基础,运用基于景观格局指数的景观生态风险评价模型,揭示云南省安宁市景观生态风险时空演变特征,并采用在FLUS模型基础上改进的PLUS模型动态模拟预测安宁市2030年不同情境下景观生态风险空间分布特征和变化趋势。【结果】2000—2020年,研究区人造地表面积呈上升趋势,耕地、草地、灌木地、水域面积总体呈下降趋势,林地面积相对稳定;景观生态风险值空间集聚状态明显,但集聚程度呈下降趋势。景观生态风险等级整体以中等生态风险、较高生态风险为主,占总面积的59.76%~52.95%;2030年3种不同情景中生态保护情景下的高生态风险区面积最小,低生态风险区面积最大,恶化区最少。【结论】山区中小城镇生态风险管控和建设开发矛盾明显,生态风险时空分布特征与人类活动干预强度密切相关,高生态风险区主要分布于各街道城镇扩展的边缘地带,应重点关注城镇用地扩张所导致的景观类型结构及其生态风险的动态变化;基于生态保护情景的安宁市景观生态风险空间分布特征和变化趋势更接近生态安全格局优化路径,更符合安宁市区域经济社会的高质量发展。图5表5参30。
[Objective]With an exploration of the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of landscape ecological risks in key mountainous development zones as well as the the simulation and prediction of the changing trends of landscape ecological risks,this study is aimed to provide support for the alleviation of the conflicts between ecological protection and construction,so as to promote the sustainable use of land resources,giving full play to the regional central function and furthering the high-quality regional development in small and medium-sized towns.[Method]Based on the land cover data of 2000,2010 and 2020,a model of risk assessment on landscape ecology was constructed on the basis of the landscape index to examine the spatiotemporal variations of landscape ecological risk in Anning in Yunnan Province.Then,a prediction was made of the spatial distribution characteristics and trends of landscape ecological risks in different contexts in Anning in 2030 employing the PLUS model which was improved from the FLUS model.[Result]From 2000 to 2020,the area of artificial surfaces in the study area showed an upward trend,while the area of cultivated land,grassland,shrubland and water bodies showed a downward trend,with the area of forest land staying relatively stable.The spatial agglomeration state of landscape ecological risk values was significant,yet with its degree on the decline and the landscape ecological risk was mainly at medium and high levels in Anning taking up 59.76%-52.95% of the total area.Under the ecological protection scenario in 2030,the area of high ecological risk zone will be the smallest deterioration zone taking up an even smaller share while the area of low ecological risk zone will be the largest.[Conclusion]The contradiction between ecological risk control and the construction of small and medium-sized towns in mountainous areas was obvious.The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of landscape ecological risks were closely related to the intensity of human activity intervention,and the higher ecological risk regions were mainly distributed in the fringes of the urban areas.Therefore,focus should be laid on the dynamic changes in the structure of landscape types and their ecological risks as a result of urban land expansion.It was also found that the spatial distribution characteristics and change trends of landscape ecological risk under the ecological protection scenario are closer to the optimization path of ecological security pattern and this scenario is more consistent with the high-quality development of regional economy and society in Anning.[Ch,5 fig.5 tab.30 ref.]
作者
李琛
高彬嫔
吴映梅
郑可君
武燕
LI Chen;GAO Binpin;WU Yingmei;ZHENG Kejun;WU Yan(Faculty of Geography,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,Yunnan,China;Yunnan Academy of Social Sciences,Kunming 650000,Yunnan,China)
出处
《浙江农林大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第1期84-94,共11页
Journal of Zhejiang A&F University
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41761037)
云南省哲学社会科学创新团队科研项目(2021tdxmy04)
云南省哲学社会科学规划社会智库项目(SHZK2021415)。
