摘要
[目的/意义]《国家情报评估》被认为是美国情报界最正规和最高水平的战略分析产品。对国家情报评估与决策的关系深入研究,可有助于我国完善科学决策体系,对国家治理体系现代化建设大有裨益。[方法/过程]基于多源流理论和认知心理学,从建议采纳视角出发构建出国家情报评估与决策的影响机制模型,借助模糊集定性比较分析法(fsQCA)对英、美等国家的案例进行分析。[结果/结论]研究表明利益主张及协调是国家情报评估结果被采纳的唯一必要条件,并揭示出紧急和非紧急事件下国家情报评估与决策关系的3种条件组合路径。
[Purpose/significance]The National Intelligence Estimates is regarded as the most formal and the highest level of strategic analysis product in the U.S.intelligence community.An in-depth study of the relationship between national intelligence estimates and decision-making can help to improve the scientific decision-making system in China and greatly benefit the modernization of the national governance system.[Method/process]Based on the multiple-stream theory and cognitive psychology,this paper constructed the influence mechanism model of national intelligence estimates and decision-making from the perspective of suggestion adoption,and analyzed the cases of Britain,the United States and other countries with the help of fsQCA method.[Result/conclusion]The study shows that interest proposition and coordination are the only necessary conditions for the adoption of national intelligence evaluation results,and reveals three conditions combination paths of the relationship between national intelligence estimates and decision-making under emergency and non-emergency events.
作者
王今
马海群
邹纯龙
Wang Jin;Ma Haiqun;Zou Chunlong(School of Economics and Management,Harbin University of Science and Technology,Harbin 150080;Research Center of Information Resources Management,Heilongjiang University,Harbin 150080;Chinese Language and Literature of Postdoctoral Research Station,Heilongjiang University,Harbin 150080)
出处
《图书情报工作》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第2期22-31,共10页
Library and Information Service
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“总体国家安全观下的国家情报工作制度创新研究”(项目编号:20ATQ004)研究成果之一。
关键词
国家情报评估
决策分析
多源流理论
认知心理学
fsQCA
national intelligence estimates
decision-making analysis
multiple-stream theory
cognitive psychology
fsQCA
