摘要
目的通过建立风险预测模型预测缺血性脑卒中(IS)患者90 d内复发的危险因素.方法收集320例缺血性脑卒中患者临床资料,并进行90 d随访,比较复发和未复发患者的临床指标,通过Logistic回归分析筛选出影响患者复发的危险因素,建立风险预测模型.结果纳入分析的309例患者中,有33例(10.7%)患者复发,回归分析结果显示:性别、年龄、高血压病史、糖尿病史、高胆固醇血症是缺血性脑卒中患者复发的独立危险因素(P<0.05).ROC曲线下面积为0.821,约登指数的最大值为0.486,此时该模型灵敏度为75.8%,特异度为72.8%,截断值为-2.611.结论本研究建立的风险预测模型可早期识别IS高复发风险患者.
Objective To explore the risk factors of recurrence within 90 days in patients with ischemic stroke and establish a risk prediction model.Method A total of 320 patients with ischemic stroke were selected and conducted a 90-day follow-up,patients’clinical indicators in the recurrence and non-recurrence groups were compared.The risk factors affecting patients’recurrence were screened out by Logistic regression analysis,and a risk prediction model was established.Results Among the 309 patients included in the calculation,33 cases(10.7%)relapsed.The regression analysis showed that gender,age,history of hypertension,diabetes mellitus and hypercholesterolemia were the independent risk factors for relapse of ischemic stroke(P<0.05).The area under the ROC curve was 0.821,and the maximum value of Jordan index was 0.486.The sensitivity,specificity and cutoff value of the model were 75.8%,72.8%and-2.611,respectively.Conclusion The risk prediction model established in this study can screen out early ischemic stroke patients with high recurrence risk.
作者
刘岚予
贾晓静
LIU Lanyu;JIA Xiaojing(Affiliated Hospital of Beihua University,Jilin 132011,China)
出处
《北华大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2021年第6期779-783,共5页
Journal of Beihua University（Natural Science）
基金
吉林省教育厅科学技术研究项目(JJKH20200062KJ).
关键词
缺血性脑卒中
复发
预测模型
ischemic stroke
recurrence
prediction model
