摘要
以大豆价格波动非线性特征为切入点,重点探究中美贸易政策不确定性变动与中国大豆价格的经济联系,并运用TVP-SV-VAR模型进行了经验分析。结果发现:(1)中美间贸易政策不确定性变动存在双向溢出效应。尽管中美间贸易政策不确定性相互影响程度存在差异,但其总体冲击效应随中美贸易发展而持续加深。(2)中美贸易政策不确定性对中国大豆价格波动冲击效应具有差异性。相较而言,美国贸易政策不确定性对中国大豆价格的影响程度更深,影响期限更长。(3)中美贸易政策不确定性借助宏观经济变化导致中国大豆价格波动明显,而美国贸易政策不确定性对中国宏观经济影响更大。
Based on the non-linear characteristics of soybean price fluctuation,this paper focuses on the economic relationship between sino-US trade policy uncertainty and China’s soybean price,and conducts empirical analysis by using the TVP-SV-VAR model.The results show that:(1)there is two-way spillover effect in the uncertainty of trade policy between China and the United States.Although there are differences in the degree of mutual influence of trade policy uncertainty between China and the United States,the overall impact effect continues to deepen with the development of sino-US trade.(2)Sino-US trade policy uncertainty has different impact on China’s soybean price.In contrast,the impact of US trade policy uncertainty on China’s soybean price is deeper and longer.(3)The impact effect of sino-US trade policy uncertainty,with the help of China’s macro-economic growth,has lead to significant fluctuation of China’s soybean price.Among them the uncertainty of US trade policy has a greater impact on China’s macro-economy.
作者
冯满敬
花培鹏
李文
解月
花俊国
FENG Manjing;HUA Peipeng;LI Wen;XIE Yue;HUA Junguo(College of Economics and Management, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China;Kunming University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management and Economics, Kunming 650093, China;College of Agronomy, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China)
出处
《河南农业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
2021年第6期1142-1151,共10页
Journal of Henan Agricultural University
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71973044)
教育部人文社科研究规划项目(20YJA790027)。
