摘要
气候变化背景下,干旱事件频繁发生,对粮食安全、水资源管理及社会经济的可持续发展构成严重威胁。为精准把握干旱演变规律及其发生概率,以标准化降水蒸散指数(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,SPEI)表征气象干旱,基于MMK、Copula函数等方法分析贵州省1960—2017年气象干旱特征时空演变规律及其联合概率。结果表明:①贵州省近58年来干旱事件频繁发生,且严重程度较高,平均历时和烈度分别集中在1.8~2.3个月和4.2~13.2,黔东南和黔西南地区的气象干旱历时短、烈度小,且持续时间和严重程度均呈增加趋势;②贵州省气象干旱历时和烈度的最优边缘分布函数分别为广义帕累托分布(GP)和对数正态分布(LogN),它们之间的最优联合分布模型为Frank Copula函数;③贵州省气象干旱的联合发生概率随着干旱特征变量的减小呈增加趋势,只考虑“或”(“和”)情况的气象干旱风险会被高估(低估),准确合理的干旱频率分析需要对两种情况进行综合分析。此研究结果可为贵州省抗旱减灾及水资源管理提供参考依据。
In the context of climate change,droughts occur frequently,which poses a serious threat to food security,water resources management and sustainable social and economic development.In order to accurately grasp the evolution law of drought and its occurrence probability,the meteorological drought is characterized by standardized precipitation evapotrans-piration index(SPEI).Based on MMK,Copula function and other methods,the temporal and spatial evolution law and joint probability of meteorological drought characteristics in Guizhou Province from 1960 to 2017 are analyzed.The results are as follows.Firstly,in the past 58 years,drought events have occurred frequently in Guizhou Province,and their severity is relatively high,with average duration and intensity concentrated in 1.8 to 2.3 months and 4.2 to 13.2,respectively.The meteorological drought in eastern and southwestern Guizhou has a short duration,low intensity,and an increasing trend in duration and severity.Secondly,the optimal marginal distribution functions of meteorological drought duration and inten-sity in Guizhou Province are generalized Pareto distribution(GP)and lognormal distribution(LogN),respectively.The optimal joint distribution model between them is the Frank Copula function.Thirdly,the probability of joint occurrence of meteorological drought in Guizhou Province shows an increasing trend with the decrease of drought characteristic variables.Meteorological drought risk will be overestimated(underestimated)if only considering the“or”(“and”)situation.An ac-curate and reasonable drought frequency analysis requires a comprehensive analysis of the two situations.The results of this study can provide reference for drought relief and water resources management in Guizhou Province.
作者
李宝玉
朱晓萌
冯凯
张泽中
崔振华
LI Baoyu;ZHU Xiaomeng;FENG Kai;ZHANG Zezhong;CUI Zhenhua(Henan Vocational College of Water Conservancy and Environment,Zhengzhou 450045,China;Guizhou Quality and Safety Centre of Water Conservancy Engineering Construction,Guiyang 550002,China;School of Water Conservancy,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China;Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450003,China)
出处
《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》
北大核心
2021年第6期42-48,80,共8页
Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0404402)
变化环境下贵州烟水工程抗旱减灾能力评估与提升对策研究(KT202001)
变化环境下农业干旱响应机理及智能预测方法研究(51779093)
贵州烟草旱涝急转响应机理与减灾对策研究(KT201705)。
关键词
贵州省
气象干旱
干旱识别
COPULA函数
联合发生概率
Guizhou Province
meteorological drought
drought identification
Copula function
joint occurrence probability
