摘要
为探究黄河流域历史气象干旱时空演变特征,并结合ENSO事件探究其关联性,选取黄河流域99个气象站1961—2020年的逐月降水与气温资料,结合Mann-Kendall突变检验、Morlet小波分析等方法揭示近60 a黄河流域年、季尺度的干旱时空特征,并结合平均海平面温度距平指数SSTA,探究黄河流域气象干旱特征与ENSO事件的相关性。研究结果表明:(1)年尺度上,黄河流域近60 a的标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI以-0.114/10 a的速度变化,干旱现象较严重,空间上,流域西部呈轻微湿润化趋势,流域东部呈干旱化趋势;(2)季尺度上,全流域春季干旱化趋势最为显著,夏秋季其次,冬季干旱化趋势微弱;(3)Morlet小波分析显示,黄河流域存在13 a主周期的旱涝交替,2020年的小波系数实部图显示,黄河流域将持续湿润;(4)ENSO事件发生强度与黄河流域SPEI影响因子的相关性表明,ENSO事件的发生与降水及温度的相关性显著,且相关性存在1~6个月的滞后。
In order to explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of historical meteorological drought in theYellow River Basin and explore its correlation with ENSO events,it selected the monthly precipitation and temperature data of 99 meteorological stations in the Yellow River Basin from 1961 to 2020.Based on Mann-Kendall mutation test and Morlet wavelet analysis,it revealed the temporal and spatial characteristics of annual and seasonal drought in the Yellow River Basin over the past 60 years,and the correlation between meteorological drought characteristics in the Yellow River Basin and ENSO events were explored by combining the mean sea surface temperature anomaly index(SSTA).The results show that a)on the annual scale,the SPEI index of the Yellow River Basin during recent 60 years is decreased at a rate of-0.114/10 a,the drought phenomenon is serious.Spatially,the western part of the basin shows a slight trend of wetness,while the eastern part of the basin shows a trend of aridity.b)At the seasonal scale,the most significant drying trend is spring,followed by summer and autumn,and the drying trend is weak in winter.c)Morlet wavelet analysis shows that there is a 13-year main cycle of drought and flood alternation in the Yellow River Basin.By observing the real part of wavelet coefficients in 2020,it shows that the Yellow River Basin will remain wet.d)The polynomial fitting relationship and correlation between the occurrence intensity of ENSO events and the SPEI influencing factors in the Yellow River Basin indicate that the occurrence of ENSO events is significantly correlated with precipitation and temperature and the correlation has a lag of 1-6 months.
作者
黄婷婷
林青霞
吴志勇
汪瑛琪
HUANG Tingting;LIN Qingxia;WU Zhiyong;WANG Yingqi(Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,Zhengzhou 450003,China;College of Water Conservancy and Environment,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2021年第11期52-58,共7页
Yellow River
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51779071)
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1502403)。
