摘要
在碳达峰碳中和战略目标要求下,能源系统面临着巨大的低碳转型压力。电力行业作为最大的碳排放来源以及支撑终端电气化发展的关键行业,在整体能源系统低碳转型中的角色至关重要。为此,该文建立具有高时空分辨率和技术准确度的电力系统长期规划方法,形成基于电力平衡的电力行业长期规划与短期运行联合优化模型。基于该模型,研究中国电力行业的低碳转型路径,将低碳排放目标作为碳约束条件,用倒逼的方式确定出各类发电技术随时间的发展规模、地域分布和投资成本。结果表明,电力行业若要实现气候目标,需要处理好几个关键问题,包括可再生能源的扩张、煤电的提前退出、碳捕集技术的应用以及转型投资的保障。该文通过将不同排放目标下的转型路径和成本进行细致的对比分析,为相关政策制定提供科学支撑。
In the context of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality target, the energy system is facing tremendous pressure for low-carbon transition. As the largest source of carbon emissions and the key industry supporting electrification, the power sector plays a crucial role in the low-carbon transition of the overall energy system. In this paper, a long-term power system planning method with high spatio-temporal resolution and technical accuracy was proposed and a joint optimization model for long-term planning and short-term operation of the power sector was established. The low-carbon transition pathway of China’s power sector was studied based on this model. Taking the carbon emission targets as constraints, the optimal scale, location and investment cost of different power generation technologies were determined. To achieve the climate targets, several key issues should be carefully addressed, including renewable energy expansion, premature retirement of coal plants, deployment of carbon capture technologies and guarantee of investment. By conducting detailed comparison and analysis of the pathways and costs under different emission targets, this paper provides scientific support for policy making.
作者
李政
陈思源
董文娟
刘培
杜尔顺
麻林巍
何建坤
LI Zheng;CHEN Siyuan;DONG Wenjuan;LIU Pei;DU Ershun;MA Linwei;HE Jiankun(Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development(Tsinghua University),Haidian District,Beijing 100084,China;Tsinghua-BP Clean Energy Research and Education Center(Tsinghua University),Haidian District,Beijing 100084,China)
出处
《中国电机工程学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第12期3987-4000,共14页
Proceedings of the CSEE
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71934006,71690245)
华能集团总部‘基础能源科技研究专项(HNKJ20-H50)’资助项目(U20NYZL01)。
关键词
电力行业
低碳转型
建模与优化
power sector
low-carbon transition
modelling and optimization
