摘要
目的分析上海市宝山区手足口病流行病学特征,运用自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)建立手足口发病趋势预测,为宝山区手足口病防控预警提供参考依据。方法采用描述性流行病学方法及ARIMA模型对2012-2019年宝山区手足口疫情报告情况进行分析及外推预测。结果 2012-2019年宝山区手足口病报告发病例数共33 241例,呈隔年暴发,年均发病率为205.73/10万,重症率为0.08%,病死率为3.008/10万,12个街镇中大场镇发病例数最多(21.31%),罗店镇发病例数最少(2.61%),其中男性19 909例,女性13 332例,男女性别比为1.49∶1,男性发病率高于女性(P<0.001),发病年龄多集中在1~5岁,多为散居儿童。专家模拟器预测模型确定为ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12,预测结果显示2020年宝山区手足口年发病率为177.64/10万。结论宝山区手足口病地区、时间、年龄、性别及人群分布特征明显,低龄、男性、EV 71病毒感染为重症及死亡的危险因素。专家建模器构建乘积季节性模型拟合效果较好,可准确有效地预测宝山区手足口病发病趋势,能够对预警提供积极有效的依据。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD) in Baoshan District,Shanghai from 2012 to 2019,and to use the autoregression-moving average model(ARIMA) to establish the prediction of the incidence trend of HFMD, so as to provide reference basis for the prevention and control of HFMD in Baoshan District. Methods Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the HFMD epidemic situation in Baoshan District from 2012 to 2019,and ARIMA model was used to extrapolation forecast. Results Baoshan district had a total of 33 241 cases of HFMD reported from 2012 to 2019, showing a biennial outbreak trend. The average annual incidence was 205.73/105. Rate of severe cases was 0.08%. The fatality rate was 3.008/105. Dachang town reported the largest number of cases(21.31%)in 12 street towns,while Luodian town reported the smallest(2.61%). For the cases,19 909 were male and 13 332 were female,with a male-tofemale ratio of 1.49∶ 1. The incidence rate of male was higher than that of female(P<0.001).The onset age commonly concentrated in 1~5 years old, and the cases were often reported in children living in diaspora. The prediction model of expert simulator was determined as ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12,and the prediction results showed that the incidence of HFMD in Baoshan district in 2020 was 177.64/105. Conclusion The characteristics of area, time, age, sex and population distribution of HFMD are obvious in Baoshan district. People with young age,male and EV71 virus infection are the risk factors for severe disease and death. The expert modeler has built a product seasonal model with good fitting effect, which accurately and effectively predict the incidence trend of HFMD in Baoshan district and can provide positive and effective basis for pre-warning.
作者
杨亚
万金豹
蔡世龙
YANG Ya;WAN Jinbao;CAI Shilong(Yanghang Town Community Health Center,Shanghai 201901,China;Baoshan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 201901,China)
出处
《寄生虫病与感染性疾病》
CAS
2021年第2期75-81,共7页
Parasitoses and Infectious Diseases
关键词
手足口病
流行特征
分析
ARIMA
预测
hand-foot-mouth disease
epidemic characteristics
analysis
ARIMA
forecast
