摘要
利用IGS中心提供的全球电离层TEC数据,建立集合经验模态分解与Holt-Winters组合的预报模型。根据地磁活动情况,选取地磁平静时段和地磁活跃时段的低、中纬度TEC序列,分别采用EEMD-Holt-Winters组合模型和单一Holt-Winters模型进行建模预报。实验结果表明,地磁平静期文中模型的相对精度最优可达91.71%,均方根误差最优可达1.54 TECu,地磁活跃期文中模型的相对精度最优可达86.83%,均方根误差最优可达2.18 TECu,预报结果较单一模型有显著提高。
This paper uses the global ionospheric TEC data provided by IGS center to establish a forecasting model combining empirical mode decomposition and Holt-Winters. According to the geomagnetic activity, the EMD-Holt-Winters combination model and the single Holt-Winters model are used to model and forecast the low and mid-latitude TEC sequences in the periods of geomagnetic calm and activity respectively. The experimental result shows that the relative accuracy of the model in this paper can reach 91.71%, the root mean square error can reach 1.54 TECu, the relative accuracy of the model can reach 86.83%, and the root mean square error can reach 2.18 TECu during the period of geomagnetic activity. Compared with the single model, the forecast result is significantly improved.
作者
周强波
ZHOU Qiangbo(Changsha Uranium Geology Research Institute, CNNC, Changsha 410007, China)
出处
《测绘工程》
CSCD
2021年第3期15-20,共6页
Engineering of Surveying and Mapping
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41761089)
中国核工业地质局铀矿地质项目(201917
201930-1
202028-1
202021-1)。
