摘要
为了解1970—2014年黑龙江省自然植被气候生产潜力的分布规律和变化趋势及其对气候变化的响应,利用黑龙江省80个气象站观测数据,结合Miami模型,通过小波分析和EOF分析等方法,对黑龙江省自然植被气候生产潜力的变化特征进行分析。结果表明:1970年以来,气温、降水、蒸散和标准气候生产潜力呈增加趋势,2000—2014年粮食安全存在隐患。标准气候生产潜力(W)与蒸散气候生产潜力年代际变化相近。4种气候生产潜力主周期均为26~31年。W空间分布呈正、负相间。W与气温、降水量和蒸散量呈正相关,气温是主要限制因子。“暖湿型”气候对W有利,生产潜力增加幅度7.41%~14.82%。研究结果对优化农业布局,提高农业气候资源利用率以及促进粮食作物稳产高产等有参考价值。
To understand the distribution rule and change trend of climate-induced potential productivity of natural vegetation and its response to climate change in Heilongjiang from 1970 to 2014,the authors used the Miami model,wavelet analysis and EOF to analyze the variation characteristics of the climate-induced potential productivity of natural vegetation based on observation data of 80 meteorological stations.The results showed that:the four types of climate-induced potential productivity(air temperature,precipitation,evapotranspiration and standard climate-induced potential productivity)had increased since 1970,however,there were hidden dangers in food security from 2000 to 2014.The standard climate-induced potential productivity(W)and evapotranspiration climate-induced potential productivity had similar interdecadal variation.The major periodic of the four types of climate-induced potential productivity was 26 to 31 years.The W presented alternate positive and negative variations in space,and it was positively correlated with the air temperature,precipitation,and evapotranspiration,the air temperature was the main restriction factor.Warm-wet climate is beneficial to W,and the potential productivity will increase within a range of 7.41%to 14.82%.The results could provide a basic method for optimizing agricultural distribution,improving the utilization of agricultural climate resources and promoting stable and high yield production of grain crops.
作者
田宝星
宫丽娟
杨帆
陈晶
翟墨
张洋
Tian Baoxing;Gong Lijuan;Yang Fan;Chen Jing;Zhai Mo;Zhang Yang(Heilongjiang Province Institute of Meteorological Science,Harbin 150030,Heilongjiang,China;Innovation and Opening Laboratory of Regional Eco-meteorology in Northeast of China Meteorological Administration,Harbin 150030,Heilongjiang,China;Heilongjiang Meteorological Bureau Office Service Centre,Harbin 150030,Heilongjiang,China;Bayan Meteorological Bureau,Harbin 151800,Heilongjiang,China)
出处
《农学学报》
2021年第3期60-67,共8页
Journal of Agriculture
基金
国家自然科学基金“基于生态位模型的高寒区大豆潜在适生性研究”(31801253)
“西辽河流域湿地演变特征及其对气候变化的响应研究”(41665007)
中国气象局核心业务发展专项“农作物生长全程气象动态评估技术集成”(CMAHX20160205)
中国气象局东北地区生态气象创新开放实验室开放研究基金项目“气候变化背景下大兴安岭蓝莓气候适宜性研究”(stqx201902),“基于作物分期播种试验的气象指标验证”(stqx2019zd01)
黑龙江省寒区湿地生态与环境研究重点实验室2019年开放课题“寒地人工湿地CH4排放变化特征及其气候效应”(201904)。
关键词
植被
气候变化
Miami模型
气候生产潜力
黑龙江
Vegetation
Climate Change
Miami Model
Climate-induced Potential Productivity
Heilongjiang
