摘要
以更准确的估算地震预警(earthquake early warning,EEW)震级为目标,利用P波触发后3 s内的日本K-net强震数据,选取幅值参数、周期参数、能量参数、衍生参数这4大类共12个P波特征参数作为输入,构建基于支持向量机震级预测模型(support vector machine for earthquake magnitude estimation,SVM-M)。结果表明,比较传统的震级估算“τc方法”与“P d方法”,建立的SVM-M模型震级预测误差明显减小且不受震中距变化的影响,小震高估问题得到明显改善。2016年日本熊本地震主震(M j7.3)与2008年中国汶川地震主震(M s8.0)的震例分析结果表明,3 s时间窗不能匹配震源破裂全过程而出现了一定程度的震级低估,但仍可在P波触发后短时间窗内明确是大地震事件。建立的SVM-M模型可应用于地震预警震级快速估算。
In order to more accurately estimate earthquake magnitude,using Japanese K-Net strong earthquake data within 3 seconds after P-wave triggering,12 P-wave characteristic parameters including 4 kinds of amplitude parameter,period one,energy one and derivative one were selected as input to construct the prediction model of earthquake magnitude based on support vector machine for earthquake magnitude estimation(SVM-M).Results showed that compared with the traditional earthquake magnitude estimation“τc method”and“P d method”,the prediction error of the established SVM-M model is obviously reduced and not affected by variation of epicentral distance,and the overestimation of small earthquake is obviously improved.The case analysis results of main earthquake of 2016 Kumamoto earthquake(M j 7.3)in Japan and 2008 Wenchuan earthquake(M s8.0)in China showed that the 3-second time window can’t match the whole process of focal rupture,and the seismic magnitude is underestimated to a certain extent,but what happening can be determined as a large earthquake event within the short time window after P-wave triggering;the established SVM-M model can be used to rapidly estimate the seismic magnitude for earthquake early warning.
作者
朱景宝
宋晋东
李山有
ZHU Jingbao;SONG Jindong;LI Shanyou(Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration,Harbin 150080,China;Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,China Earthquake Administration,Harbin 150080,China)
出处
《振动与冲击》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第7期126-134,共9页
Journal of Vibration and Shock
基金
国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1504003)
山东省高校土木结构防灾减灾协同创新中心基金(XTZ201901)。
关键词
地震预警(EEW)
震级估算
支持向量机(SVM)
P波
特征参数
earthquake early warning(EEW)
magnitude estimation
support vector machine(SVM)
P-wave
characteristic parameter
