摘要
开展华北地区地下水开采与粮食生产的脱钩关系研究,对于客观反映华北地区地下水超采治理成效,辅助华北粮食主产区地下水超采治理精准施策,继而促进地下水资源修复与农业可持续发展具有重要意义。综合采用Tapio脱钩模型、LMDI分解模型和GIS莫兰指数空间分析方法分别从省区和地市层面对华北地区地下水开采量与粮食产量之间的脱钩关系进行分析,揭示脱钩的驱动效应及空间差异特征。结果表明:强脱钩是华北地区粮食产量与地下水开采的主要状态;供水结构效应、用水效率效应、规模效应是推动华北地区地下水开采减小的主要因素;华北地区地下水开采量与粮食产量脱钩程度整体趋于优化,“十三五”期间,超过80%的地市处于脱钩状态,各驱动效应贡献率呈现H-H聚集和L-L聚集特征,但聚集区域较小,未形成连片效应。建议:以河北、河南、山东三省区为重点,加大调整供水结构,进一步减少地下水开采消耗;推进实施农业节水,强化河南西部等地区用水效率驱动效应;重视山东半岛等地区粮食播种面积减少趋势,保障粮食安全。
To study the decoupling relationship between groundwater exploitation and grain production in North China Plains,and to reveal the driving factors and temporal and spatial characteristics of decoupling effect,is of great significance to objectively reflect the effect of groundwater overexploitation,assist the precise measures of groundwater overexploitation in the main grain producing areas,and then promote the rehabilitation of groundwater resources and the sustainable development of agriculture.Tapio decoupling model,LMDI decomposition model and GIS Moran index spatial analysis method are used to analyze the decoupling relationship from the provincial level and prefecture level respectively,and the driving effect and spatial difference characteristics of decoupling are discussed.The results show that:strong decoupling is the main state of grain production and groundwater exploitation in North China Plains;water supply structure effect,water use efficiency effect and scale effect are the main factors promoting the decrease in groundwater exploitation;the decoupling degree of groundwater exploitation and grain production tends to be optimized overall.During the 13th Five-year Plan,more than 80%of the cities are in the decoupling state,and the contribution rate of dynamic effect shows the characteristics of H-H aggregation and L-L aggregation,but the aggregation area is small and there is no contiguous effect.Suggestions:focus on Hebei,Henan and Shandong provinces,increase the adjustment of water supply structure,reduce further the consumption of groundwater exploitation,promote the implementation of agricultural water saving,strengthen the driving effect of water use efficiency in western Henan and other regions,pay attention to the decreasing trend of grain sown area in Shandong Peninsula and other regions to ensure food security.
作者
封丽
赵又霖
FENG Li;ZHAO You-lin(School of Business,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100, China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2021年第1期132-138,146,共8页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(16ZDA046)。
关键词
地下水资源
粮食产量
脱钩分析
驱动效应
空间自相关
groundwater resources
grain yield
decoupling analysis
driving effect
spatial autocorrelation
