摘要
鉴于各产业用电要求存在差异,为全面响应用户侧的需求,电网在规划过程中需要根据该地区可能落址的用户及其供电需求进行合理规划。对大用户落户影响因素进行研究并构建大用户落户情况的短期预测,综合电网因素和非电网因素构建大用户落户影响因素体系,依据相关历史数据对不同产业类型的用户建立多元线性回归模型并进行可行性检验,应用SPSS软件分析多元线性回归模型得到回归预测方程,回归系数的正负判断所选取的影响因素对大用户的落户是否会产生积极影响;同时根据所确定的产业落户回归预测方程对短期内地区大用户落户情况进行预测,通过预测模型的精度对比,结果表明,电力公司可以根据模型分析结果研究产业落户的变化情况并进行短期预测,从而对城市电网规划进行合理的调整。
In the light of differences in power requirements of different types of large users,in order to fully respond to the demand of the user side,the power grid needs to make reasonable planning based on the potential users in the area and their power supply needs during the planning process. Therefore,this paper proposes to study the influencing factors of large users’ settlement and construct a short-term forecast of the settlement. Grid factors and non-grid factors are integrated to build a system of the affecting factors;and multiple linear regression models for users of different industry types are established based on relevant historical data and conduct feasibility tests and the corresponding tests are conducted.The SPSS software is used to analyze multiple linear regression models to obtain the regression prediction equation. And the influencing factors selected by the positive and negative judgments of the regression coefficient have a positive impact on whether a large user would be settled down or not. At the same time,according to the determined regression prediction equation of the industrial settlement,the settlement situation of regional large users is predicted in the short term,and the validity of the multiple linear regression model is verified by comparing the accuracy of the prediction model. The power company can study the changes of industrial settlement based on the model analysis results and use the regression prediction equation to make short-term predictions on the settlement of large users,so as to make reasonable adjustments to the urban power grid planning.
作者
魏聪
乔立
赵红生
周辉
王博
甘佩莹
幸相渝
陈俊锋
WEI Cong;QIAO Li;ZHAO Hongsheng;ZHOU Hui;WANG Bo;GAN Peiying;XING Xiangyu;CHEN Junfeng(Hubei Electric Power Corporation Economic and Technological Research Institute,Wuhan 430077,Hubei,China;School of Electrical and Automation,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,Hubei,China)
出处
《电网与清洁能源》
2020年第10期6-13,共8页
Power System and Clean Energy
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFB0904800)
国网湖北省电力有限公司科技项目(521538180012)。
关键词
城市电网规划
高新产业用户
落户情况
多元线性回归
短期预测
urban power grid planning
high-tech industry user
industry settlement
multiple linear regression
short-term forecast
