摘要
为估算河南省平顶山市奶牛布鲁氏菌病的流行率,分析可能的场间传播风险因素,对该地区68个奶牛养殖场(户)进行流行病学调查。采用虎红平板凝集和试管凝集试验垂直检测方法,估计的奶牛布鲁氏菌病群体表观流行率(AP)为11.76%,个体AP为2.22%(95%CI,1.97%~2.49%),真实表观流行率(TP)为0.28%(95%CI,0.12%~0.50%)。Logistic回归分析表明,场区没有有效隔离、不能自繁自养、调入奶牛没有隔离栏舍是奶牛布鲁氏菌病场间传播的潜在风险因素。建立的回归模型拟合度较好(P=0.05),ROC曲线面积为0.871(95%CI,0.817~0.964),预测概率较好。结果表明,平顶山市奶牛布鲁氏菌病流行率较低,整体控制效果良好,但存在一些潜在场间传播风险因素,需要加强防范,并应持续开展净化工作。本研究可为该地区奶牛布鲁氏菌病防控策略改进及净化示范区工作推进提供数据支持。
In order to estimate the prevalence of cow brucellosis in Pingdingshan City of Henan Province,analyze all possible risks of spreading among farms,an epidemiological investigation was conducted in 68 farms(households).The estimated population apparent prevalence(AP)of the population was 11.76%,that of the individual was 2.22%(95%CI,1.97%–2.49%),and the true prevalence(TP)was 0.28%(95%CI,0.12%–0.50%)by the rose bengal plate tes(t RBPT)and standard-tube agglutination test(SAT).It was shown that,by logistic regression analysis,the lack of effective isolation areas and quarantine pens for imported cows as well as failure to keep cows that were born there were the potential risks of spreading the disease among farms.The fitting degree of the regression model was good(P=0.05),and the ROC curve area was 0.871(95%CI,0.817–0.964),indicating a good prediction probability.It was concluded that the prevalence rate of cow brucellosis was low in Pingdingshan City,and the overall effect was good.Otherwise,there were still some potential risks of disease spreading among farms,preventive measures should be strengthened and purification should be continued.Therefore,the improvement of control strategies and implementation of purification demonstration zone concerning cow brucellosis were supported with data in the city.
作者
刘影
班付国
胡文发
程亚楠
张和平
谢彩华
赵雪丽
王东方
李靖宁
沈朝建
闫若潜
Liu Ying;Ban Fuguo;Hu Wenfa;Cheng Yanan;Zhang Heping;Xie Caihua;Zhao Xueli;Wang Dongfang;Li Jingning;Shen Chaojian;Yan Ruoqian(Henan Animal Disease Control&Prevention Centre,Zhengzhou,Henan 450008,China;Pingdingshan Animal Disease Control&Prevention Centre,Pingdingshan,Henan 467000,China;Animal Disease Prevention and Control Center of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,Yinchuan,Ningxia 750011,China;China Animal health and Epidemiology Center,Qingdao,Shandong 266032,China)
出处
《中国动物检疫》
CAS
2020年第12期22-26,38,共6页
China Animal Health Inspection
基金
河南省科技创新领军人才计划项目(204200510012)。
