摘要
根据历年鲜茧产量、茧丝转化比率等统计和调查数据,测算蚕丝供给量,发现蚕丝产量的测算数据明显小于其统计数据;根据历年的茧丝绸进出口量、内外销比率等统计和调查数据,估算蚕丝需求量,发现内销占比持续上升而外销占比不断下降;比较蚕丝供需的测算数据,发现蚕丝供过于求与供不应求交替出现,2018年处于供过于求状态;如果国内丝绸消费需求能进一步释放和增长,预测未来3年我国蚕丝供过于求的趋势会得到缓和。
According to statistics and survey of fresh cocoon yield and cocoon to silk conversion rate over the years,silk supply was calculated to find that calculated silk yield is obviously less than its statistical one.According to statistics and survey of cocoon import and export,ratio of domestic to export sale over the years,silk demand was calculated and found that proportion of domestic sale was increasing while that of export sale continued to decrease.Comparing calculated data of silk supply and demand,it was found that there were alternations between oversupply and over demand of silk.Silk supply exceeded demand in 2018.If domestic silk consumption continued to increase,it is predicted that supply and demand in domestic silk market will be balanced in the next three years.
作者
何樟勇
李建琴
顾国达
孔伟杰
He Zhangyong;Li Jianqin;Gu Guoda;Kong Weijie(School of Economics,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310027,China)
出处
《蚕业科学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第3期356-366,共11页
ACTA SERICOLOGICA SINICA
基金
浙江大学文科教师教学科研发展专项(101000-541903)
现代农业产业技术体系建设专项(CARS-18)
商务部茧丝绸公共服务项目(ZZJL-ZB-033)。
关键词
蚕丝
供给量
需求量
测算
预测
Silk
Supply
Demand
Calculation
Prediction
