摘要
影响手足口病疫情的气象因素众多、变量关系复杂,采用主成分分析法降低气象影响因子的维度,然后基于遗传算法BP神经网络建立手足口病疫情预测模型。以衡阳市手足口病为例,开展手足口病的疾病发病率预测研究。结果表明,模型预测的发病率与衡阳市实际手足口病发病率吻合良好,可作为手足口病疫情预测的一种有效方法。
There are many meteorological factors influencing HFMD epidemic situation,and the relationship between variables is complex.Principal component analysis is used to reduce the dimension of meteorological factors,and then a prediction model of HFMD epidemic situation is established based on genetic algorithm BP neural network.Taking HFMD in Hengyang as an example,the incidence rate was predicted.The results showed that the incidence rate predicted by the model was in good agreement with the incidence rate of HFMD in Hengyang city,and it could be used as an effective method for forecasting HFMD epidemic situation.
作者
惠天宇
杜尚勉
陈乐至
曾文杰
HUI Tian-yu;DU Shang-mian;CHEN Le-zhi;ZENG Wen-jie(School of Nuclear Science and Technology,University of South China,Hengyang,Hunan 421001,China)
出处
《教育教学论坛》
2020年第38期133-134,共2页
Education And Teaching Forum
基金
2018年度湖南省教育厅优秀青年项目资助(2018B259)
2018年度南华大学校级教改课题资助(2018XJG-YB55)。
关键词
主成分分析
遗传算法
BP神经网络
手足口病
principal component analysis
genetic algorithm
BP neural network
Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease
