摘要
使用1953—2019年深圳国家基本气象站的逐日降雨资料,采用百分位法计算得出深圳市前后汛期极端降水总量、极端降水日数和极端降水强度。运用累积距平和小波分析等方法分析了近67年深圳市极端降水事件的变化特征。结果表明:(1)深圳地区后汛期极端降水较前汛期偏大,主要和台风有关;(2)前、后汛期极端降水强度年际变化特征明显,前汛期在1~2、2~4、4~6年的周期显著;后汛期存在1~2、2~3和5~8年的周期振荡;(3)前汛期极端降水总量长期变化趋势不明显,极端降水日数有所增强,极端降水强度减弱;后汛期极端降水总量和极端降水强度均小幅减少。
Using daily rain data from a national basic meteorological station in Shenzhen from 1953 to 2019, this work determines the total rain amount, number of days and intensity of extreme rain during two annual raining seasons in the city with the method of percentile. Besides, with the methods of accumulative anomalies and wavelet analysis, it studies the variation characteristics of extreme rain events in Shenzhen for the 67 years of interest. The result is shown as follows.(1) The extreme rain of Shenzhen, which is mainly associated with typhoons, is larger in the annually second raining season(from July to September) than in the first one(from April to June).(2) In both the raining seasons, the intensity of extreme rain varies significantly on the interannual scale, with significant periods at 1 to 2, 2 to 4 and 4 to 6 years in the April-to-June season, and 1 to 2, 2 to 3 and 5 to 8 years in the July-to-September season.(3) For the extreme rain in the April-to-June season, its long-term variation trend of total rain amount is insignificant, its number of days increases but its intensity decreases. For the extreme rain in the July-to-September season, however, both the total rain amount and intensity decrease by small amplitudes.
作者
张超
周佐欢
蔡伟源
陈潜
李超
ZHANG Chao;ZHOU Zuo-huan;CAI Wei-yuan;CHEN Qian;LI Chao(Meteorologcal Observatory of Shenzhen,Shenzhen 518040;National Climate Observatory of Shenzhen,Shenzhen 518040;Meteorological Service Center of Shenzhen,Shenzhen 518040;Release Center of Pre-warning Information for Explosive Events of Shenzhen,Shenzhen 518040;Shenzhen Key Laboratory for Severe Weather in Southern China,Shenzhen 518040)
出处
《广东气象》
2020年第4期27-31,共5页
Guangdong Meteorology
基金
深圳市科学技术研究项目“基于高分辨率数值预报模式的深圳大风预报性能评估及释用方法研究”(SZKJ202007)。
关键词
天气学
极端降水
前汛期
后汛期
深圳市
synoptics
extreme rain
annually first raining season
annually second raining season
Shenzhen
