摘要
打好防范化解重大风险攻坚战的关键之一是化解地方政府隐性债务风险。本文梳理了隐性债务的典型事实,尝试构建了一个解释框架:隐性债务形成中,金融分权是资源配置机制,保增长压力是动力机制,融资平台则是金融载体机制。通过测算30个省级行政区2003-2017年隐性债务数据,运用空间面板计量模型进行了实证分析。研究证实,金融分权和保增长压力在隐性债务膨胀中发挥了重要作用。金融分权直接效应和空间滞后间接效应对隐性债务增长均有显著影响,保增长压力则主要通过直接效应发挥作用。金融分权是地方政府举债行为空间关联性的重要原因之一。处理好金融分权作用载体的融资平台债务,可作为加强隐性债务治理的突破口。
Resolving the subnational implicit debt risks is one of the key points to control and mitigate major financial risks.Based on the typical facts of implicit debt,this paper constructs an explanation framework:in the formation of implicit debt,financial decentralization is the resource allocation mechanism,the growth pressure is the driving force mechanism,and the SPVs are the financial vehicles.By measuring the implicit debt data of 30 provincial regions from 2003 to 2017,an empirical test is performed using a spatial panel model.The result confirms that financial decentralization and the pressure to ensure growth have played important roles in implicit debt inflation.Both the direct effects and spatial lag indirect effects of financial decentralization have significant impacts on implicit debt growth,while economic growth pressure mainly plays a role through the direct effects.Financial decentralization is one of the important reasons for the spatial relevance of local government’s borrowing behavior.Dealing with the debt of the SPVs,which serve as vehicle of financial decentralization,can be a breakthrough for strengthening the management of implicit debt.
作者
李一花
乔栋
LI Yi-hua;QIAO Dong(School of Economics,Shandong University,Jinan 250100,China)
出处
《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第8期59-72,共14页
Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics
基金
山东省社会科学基金重点项目(19BCJ03)
山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2019MG039)。
关键词
金融分权
保增长
增长压力
隐性债务
地方债
financial decentralization
ensuring growth
economic growth pressure
implicit debt
subnational government debt
