摘要
植被变化监测与预测是生态环境监测与保护的重要手段。基于2003~2018年MODIS EVI遥感数据,采用一元线性回归方法拟合研究区EVI的动态变化速率,结合t检验方法判定EVI变化显著性,应用Hurst指数模型预测乌蒙山地区植被未来变化特征。结果表明:(1)研究区近15年植被总体趋于改善,变率为0.004 9/yr,变化趋势曲线呈"双峰单谷"型,空间上呈"东北部高,中部、西南部低"的格局;(2)乌蒙山地区EVI极显著改善区域比重为61.98%,显著改善和不显著改善区域约占全区面积的1/3,退化区域比重为5.64%;(3)研究区植被以持续变化序列为主,占比约为59.5%,持续退化约为0.6%,反持续性改善约为25.13%,反持续改善主要分布在研究区北部、西南部和东北部等地,持续退化主要零星分布在城市区域;(4)研究区植被治理需加强监测,持续实施天然林保护、退耕还林等重大生态工程,因地制宜地探索生态经济发展模式,结合植被未来发展趋势,需要统筹推进国土空间优化。研究结果将有助于认识乌蒙山地区植被的时空演化特征及未来发展趋势,有利于该区采取积极措施应对植被变化。
Vegetation change monitoring and prediction is an important means of ecological environment monitoring and protection.Based on the MODIS EVI remote sensing data from 2003 to 2018,the one-liner linear regression method is used to fit the dynamic change rate of EVI in the study area,the significance of EVI change was determined by t test method,and the Hurst index model is used to predict the future changes of vegetation in Wumeng.Mountain area.The results show that:(1) The vegetation in the study area has tended to improve in the past 15 years,with a variability of 0.0049/yr.The change trend curve presents a " two-peak single-valley" type,with a spatial pattern of " high in the northeast,low in the middle and southwest";(2) The proportion of the region with extremely significant EVI improvement in Wumeng Mountain area is 61.98%,the region with significant improvement and non-significant improvement accounts for about 1/3 of the whole area,and the proportion of degraded area is 5.64%;(3) Vegetation in the study area is dominated by continuous change sequence,accounting for about59.5%, continuous degradation is about 0.6%, anti-sustainability improvement is about 25.13%, anti-sustainment improvement is mainly distributed in the northern,southwest and in the northeast and other places,the continuous degradation is mainly scattered in urban areas;(4) Vegetation management in the study area needs to strengthen monitoring,promote various ecological projects according to local conditions,and actively explore ecological economic development models such as understory economy.Combined with the future development trend of vegetation,land space optimization needs to be comprehensively promoted.The results of the study will help to understand the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and future development trends of vegetation in the Wumeng Mountain area,and help people take active measures to respond to vegetation changes.
作者
王涵玉
赵银兵
陈馨熠
WANG Han-yu;ZHAO Yin-bing;CHEN Xin-yi(Gollege of Tourism&Urban-Rural Planning,ChengduUnversity of Technology,Chengdu 610059,China;College of Earth Sciences,Chengdu University of'Technology,Chengdu 610059,China)
出处
《四川环境》
2020年第4期167-175,共9页
Sichuan Environment
基金
国家级大学生创新训练计划(201910616034)
中国地质调查项目-大凉山区生态地质调查(DD20190542)
成都理工大学生态文明中心课题(YJ2020-JD002)。
关键词
增强型植被指数
HURST指数
植被预测
地理梯度
乌蒙山地区
Enhanced vegetation index
Hurst index
vegetation prediction
geographical gradient
Wumeng Mountain area
