摘要
文章在分析区域服贸协定的形成机制的基础上,采用1989~2017年183个国家和地区的面板数据,通过随机效应logit模型实证检验了区域服贸协定形成的影响因素。研究发现:区域服贸协定的形成主要受经济因素、地理因素、贸易协定因素的影响,其中,双方在经济规模、人均GDP、同为WTO/GATT成员等各方面的相似程度越高,越可能形成区域服贸协定;双方GDP之和、其他国家和地区已存在的区域服贸协定、双方之间的区域货物贸易协定、双方的距离和偏远指数均对区域服贸协定的形成概率有稳定且显著的影响。
Based on the analysis of the formation mechanism of regional service trade agreements,this paper uses the panel data of 183 countries and areas from 1989 to 2017 to empirically test the determinants of regional service trade agreements with the random effect logit model.It is found that the formation of regional service trade agreements is mainly affected by the factors of economy,geography as well as trade agreements.More specifically,the more similar two countries are in economic scale,GDP per capita,both being WTO/GATT members etc,the more likely they will be to form an regional service trade agreement.Besides,the sum of GDP of two countries,the existing regional service trade agreements of other countries and areas,the regional goods trade agreements between two countries,the distance between two countries and the remote index all exert stable and significant effects on the formation probability of regional service trade agreements.
作者
陈广汉
杨柱
CHEN Guang-han;YANG Zhu
出处
《国际经贸探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第6期4-24,共21页
International Economics and Trade Research
基金
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(17JJDGAT002)。
关键词
服务贸易
贸易协定
形成机制
决定因素
离散选择模型
service trade
trade agreement
formation mechanism
determinant
discrete choice model
