摘要
【目的】了解贵州省秋绵雨变化特点,为贵州省农业气象服务、应对气候变化提供科学参考。【方法】基于贵州省84个气象观测站1960—2017年逐日降水量资料,采用线性回归、小波分析和IDW插值法分析了贵州省58年来秋绵雨变化趋势及空间格局。【结果】58年间贵州省秋绵雨发生次数、站次比和秋绵雨指数整体呈现下降趋势,但21世纪10年代开始呈现趋强特点。秋绵雨变化趋势、发生频率和秋绵雨指数存在突出空间异质性。全省轻度秋绵雨发生范围较大,中度和重度秋绵雨发生范围相对较小。秋绵雨存在2个时间尺度的变化周期,19年是其变化的主周期。【结论】全省秋绵雨发生次数、站次比和秋绵雨指数整体下降有利于农业生产,但秋绵雨发生频率较高的西部地区仍亟须构建应对策略,减少农业生产损失。
[Purpose]In order to understand the change characteristics of autumn rain in Guizhou Province,scientific reference was provided for agriculture meteorological service and climate change response in this region.[Method]The variation trend and spatial pattern of autumn rain in Guizhou Province in the past 58 years were analyzed by linear regression,wavelet analysis and IDW interpolation based on the daily precipitation data of 84 meteorological observation stations in Guizhou Province from 1960 to 2017.[Result]There were decline trends for occurrence frequency,occurrence station proportion of autumn rain and autumn rain index in the past 58 years.However,an increasing trend could be found since the 2010s.There were prominent spatial heterogeneities for variation trend,occurrence frequency and index of autumn rain.The occurrence scope of mild autumn rain was big while occurrence scope of moderate and severe autumn rains were relatively small.There were two time scale variation cycles for autumn rain,and 19a was the main period of change.[Conclusion]The decline of occurrence frequency,occurrence station proportion of autumn rain and au-tumn rain index is beneficial to agricultural production.However,the western region in Guizhou with higher frequency of occurrence of autumn rain needs to establish countermeasures and reduce the loss of agricultural production.
作者
韩会庆
苏志华
白玉梅
张新鼎
HAN Huiqing;SU Zhihua;BAI Yumei;ZHANG Xinding(College of Architecture and Urban Planning,Guizhou Institute of Technology,Guiyang 550003,China;School of Management Science,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025,China)
出处
《云南农业大学学报（自然科学版）》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第3期511-518,共8页
Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University:Natural Science
基金
贵州省教育厅青年科技人才成长项目(黔教合KY字[2018]262)
贵州理工学院学术新苗培养及探索创新项目(黔科合平台人才[2017]5789-23)
贵州理工学院高层次人才科研启动经费项目
贵州省科技计划项目(黔科合基础[2020]1Y152)。
关键词
秋绵雨
变化趋势
空间格局
气候变化
autumn rain
change trend
spatial pattern
climate change
