摘要
为了分析山西省旅游经济变化的主要原因,依据2000-2017年《山西省统计年鉴》数据,从社会经济条件、相关产业状况、旅游经济产业规模、政府因素等4个方面选取了9个指标进行分析。首先利用偏最小二乘回归,建立山西省旅游经济的回归模型,并对残差序列作协整检验;然后利用灰色关联度分析对9个影响因素与旅游总收入的关联度进行排序。两种方法得到的结果是一致的,但偏最小二乘回归模型的解释度达到了99.4%,模型误差也只有0.14。灰色关联度分析只能通过关联度来分析因变量和自变量的相关关系,而偏最小二乘回归系数可以更直观地看出各因素和旅游总收入的正反比关系与影响程度,其结果更加有效具体。研究结果表明:在山西省旅游经济的影响因素中,旅游人数是其中最大的一个因素,旅游总收入与国民总收入的比值为第二大的影响因素,而总客运量与旅游经济呈负相关关系。
In order to study the internal reasons for the change of tourism economy in Shanxi Province,this paper makes use of the nine relevant data in the statistical Yearbook of Shanxi province from 2000 to 2017.The article selected 9 indicators which come from four aspects:social and economic conditions,related industrial conditions,tourism economy industry scale,and government factors.Firstly,this paper uses partial least squares regression to carry out quantitative analysis,establishes the regression model of tourism economy in Shanxi Province,and makes a co-integration test on the residual sequence.Secondly,it uses the grey correlation analysis to rank the correlation between nine influencing factors and the total tourism income.The results obtained by the two methods are consistent,but the partial least squares regression has a higher fitting degree which is 99.4%,and the error of the model is 0.14.Moreover,the partial least squares regression coefficient can reflect the positive or negative relationship and influence degree of each factors and tourism total income;the grey correlation analysis can only explain the correlation between the dependent variable and the independent variable.So the results of partial least squares regression are more effective and specific.The results show that:among the influencing factors,the number of tourists is the biggest one;the ratio of tourism gross income to national gross income is the second largest one,while the total passenger volume has a negative correlation with tourism economy.
作者
郑列
宋艺
ZHENG Lie;SONG Yi(School of Sciences,Hubei Univ.of Tech,Wuhan 430068,China)
出处
《湖北工业大学学报》
2020年第2期111-115,共5页
Journal of Hubei University of Technology
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(17YJA790098)。
关键词
旅游经济
影响因素
偏最小二乘回归模型
灰色关联度
tourism economy
influencing factors
partial least squares regression model
grey relational
