摘要
基于天然气进口国实施天然气基础设施建设,出口国进行天然气储备的框架下,本文构建了两国关于天然气进出口的动态模型,并运用最优控制理论,求得了进口国的天然气销售价格、天然气基础设施投入以及出口国的天然气开采量等最优决策路径。结果表明,进口国的各最优决策路径均呈单调性变化收敛至最优稳态;当初始天然气基础设施存量与初始天然气储量均面临不足(过剩)时,出口国的最优决策路径在收敛至最优稳态的过程中可能不再呈单调性变化;进出口两国各决策的最优稳态水平均随天然气需求基础设施弹性的增加而增加;除最优稳态天然气销售价格随天然气出口价格上升而上升以外,其它决策的最优稳态水平均随其上升而下降;出口国最优稳态效用、进出口两国联合最优稳态效用均与天然气最优稳态出口价格呈倒"U"型关系,且前者达到最大值时的天然气出口价格高于后者。
China's natural gas consumption demand has increased in recent years,and natural gas imports have also increased year by year.Since 10 years ago,China has become a net importer of natural gas,and its import dependence has now exceeded 30%.In the process of rapid development of the natural gas market,although the natural gas infrastructure has changed significantly,it is still an important factor that restricts China's natural gas consumption.As a major country of natural gas consumption and import,while striving to increase the import of gas sources to ensure the supply of natural gas,China should also pay attention to the construction of natural gas infrastructure.On the other hand,for large gas exporting countries such as Russia,in order to cope with the negative impacts of factors such as the uncertainty of the natural gas market and to ensure stable economic and non-economic benefits,a certain natural gas reserve is usually required.In this context,this paper studies the dynamic game problem of the interest related gas import and export countries,mainly analyzes the equilibrium strategy and decision-making meaning in the construction and storage of natural gas infrastructure.Specifically,the first section of the paper discusses the main players,objective functions,and strategy sets of the natural gas market,and constructs a dynamic game model that describes the importing countries'economic interests as the goal,and the exporting countries take into account both economic interests and supply stability.The second section uses optimal control theory to analyze the optimal strategy for optimal natural gas sales prices and infrastructure inputs in importing countries,as well as the optimal path for natural gas extraction in exporting countries.The third section mainly studies the potential impact of natural gas demand infrastructure flexibility and natural gas export price on the optimal strategy of import and export countries by means of numerical analysis,and discusses whether there is a set of steady state natural gas export prices,which makes the exporting country optimal.The steady-state utility and the combined optimal steady-state utility of the two countries have reached the maximum.The results show that the optimal route of natural gas sales price and natural gas infrastructure investment in the importing country converges to the optimal steady state with time;when the initial natural gas infrastructure stock and the initial natural gas reserve are both insufficient or surplus,the optimal path for natural gas extraction may no longer change monotonically in the process of convergence to the optimal steady state;the optimal steady-state level of each decision of the import and export countries increases with the increase of natural gas demand infrastructure elasticity;Except for the sales price of high-precision natural gas rises with the increase of natural gas export price,and the optimal steady-state of natural gas infrastructure investment and natural gas exploitation decreases with the increase of natural gas export price;the optimal steady-state utilities of both exporting countries and the joint import and export countries have an inverted U-shaped relationship with the optimal steady-state export price of natural gas,and the natural gas export price when the former reaches the maximum is higher than the latter.
作者
张华
张荣
ZHANG Hua;ZHANG Rong(School of Economics and Business Administration,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400030,China)
出处
《管理工程学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第2期131-138,共8页
Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目(16BGL136)。
关键词
天然气进口
天然气出口
天然气基础设施
天然气储备
最优控制
Natural gas import
Natural gas export
Natural gas infrastructure
Natural gas reserve
Optimal control
