摘要
优化棉花生产布局,建设优质棉生产基地,巩固棉花生产能力既是解决目前棉花产业链面临问题的关键,更是2019年中央1号文件提出的重要要求。该文在回顾我国棉花生产布局集聚变化过程的基础上,利用1999-2018年省级面板数据,采用多元对数线性回归模型对影响棉花生产布局集聚变化的因素进行了分析。结果表明,棉田有效灌溉面积、棉田成灾面积、棉花单产水平、非农就业机会、公路里程和棉花目标价格补贴政策都会对我国棉花生产布局的集聚变化存在显著影响。基于此,应该调整优化棉花生产布局,重点布局新疆棉区,完善基础设施建设,提高棉花生产技术水平,实施更为完善的棉花保险政策。
Optimizing cotton production layout, building high-quality cotton production base, and consolidating cotton production capacity are the key to solving problems facing the current cotton industry chain, which is also an important requirement put forward by the No.1 Document issued by Central Committee of CPC. On the basis of reviewing the process of cotton production layout agglomeration in China, this paper analyzes the factors affecting the cotton production layout agglomeration by using the multi-log linear regression model to analyze the provincial panel data from 1999 to 2018. The results show that the effectiveness in irrigated area of cotton fields, the area affected by cotton fields, the level of cotton yield, non-agricultural employment opportunities, highway mileage and cotton target price subsidy policies have significant impact on the agglomeration changes of China’s cotton production layout. With this analysis, we proposed the corresponding policy suggestions.
作者
王力
杨普
吴志旻
WANG Li;YANG Pu;WU Zhi min(School of Economics and Management,Shihezi University,Shihezi 832003,Xinjiang,China;Cotton Economic Research Center,Shihezi Unversity,Shihezi 832003,Xinjiang,China)
出处
《石河子大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
2019年第6期30-36,共7页
Journal of Shihezi University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
基金
新疆生产建设兵团重大科技项目“机采棉提质增效关键技术集成示范与效益评价”(2016AA001-4)
关键词
棉花生产布局
集聚变化
驱动因素
cotton production layout
agglomeration change
driving factors
