摘要
采用Pettitt非参数检验法和Mann-Kendall非参数趋势检验法分析肯斯瓦特水库年最大洪峰流量序列非一致性,确定序列变异形式,利用“分解-合成”理论进行一致性修正,得到过去、现状两种条件下年最大洪峰流量序列,将其作为水库入库融雪洪水过程,根据水库防洪调度规则进行调洪演算,并通过频率分析法对两种条件下水库极限防洪风险率进行分析计算。结果表明:年最大洪峰流量序列在1993年发生变异,序列整体上升趋势不显著,跳跃变异为序列主要变异形式;根据两种条件下水库坝前最高库水位,以校核洪水位Z d=993.35 m为水库极限防洪风险控制指标,过去条件下肯斯瓦特水库极限防洪风险率为0.23123%,而现状条件下为0.35458%,两种条件下复核后的肯斯瓦特水库极限防洪风险率均大于5000年一遇的校核标准0.02%。
Pettitt test and Mann-Kendall test were used to analyze the inconsistency of the annual maximum flood peak discharge sequence of the Ken Swart Reservoir,and the variant form of the sequence was determined.The consistent correction was conducted based on the theory of decomposition-synthesis,and then the annual maximum peak discharge sequence under the conditions of past and present was obtained.Taking it as the inflow process of the reservoir,the flood regulation routing was carried out according to the flood control and regulation rules,and the extreme flood risk rate of the reservoir under the two different conditions were calculated using frequency analysis method.The results show that the change point of the annual maximum peak discharge sequence occurred in 1993,whereas the overall rising trend of the sequence was not significant,and the jumping variation was the main variant form.According to the maximum water level of the reservoir under the two conditions,the check flood level(Z d=993.35 m)was taken as the control index of the extreme flood control risk.The extreme risk rate of the flood control was 0.23123%under the past condition,while it was 0.35458% under the present condition.The rechecked extreme flood control risk rate of the Ken Swart Reservoir was larger than the 5000-year check standard(0.02%)under both conditions.
作者
陈伏龙
李绍飞
冯平
何新林
龙爱华
CHEN Fulong;LI Shaofei;FENG Ping;HE Xinlin;LONG Aihua(College of Water Conservancy&Architectural Engineering,Shihezi University,Shihezi 832000,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;College of Water Conservancy Engineering,Tianjin Agricultural University,Tianjin 300384,China;State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)
出处
《水利水电科技进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第6期9-16,43,共9页
Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources
基金
国家自然科学基金(51769029)
国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0404301)
天津市科委应用基础与前沿技术重点项目(15JCZDJC41400)
