摘要
暴雨是影响我们国家最重要的灾害性天气之一,暴雨预报既是业务中的关键点也是难点。本文论述了目前中央气象台的暴雨预报业务已经由基于天气学、统计学等在天气图分析的基础上进行主观外推的传统预报向基于数值预报的现代天气预报发展,强调了暴雨预报的科学问题是从预报实践中提炼出来的,而不是从参考文献中找出来的,突出了预报员是暴雨科学问题的提出者和解决实际问题的第一参与者,阐明了预报与服务工作紧密结合是中国特色气象事业的重要组成部分,充分肯定了中央气象台和中国气象局暴雨研究所等科研单位在暴雨预报、研究和我国应对突发自然灾害中发挥的重要作用,明确了暴雨等灾害天气的预报是以服务人民、社会、经济发展和国家安全为最终目标。并从预报员科学研究与实践能力的培养和提高、多源观测资料应用、区域中尺度数值预报模式和集合预报技术的发展及订正能力的提高、人工智能技术的应用等几个方面对如何提高暴雨预报准确率提出一些思考。
Torrential rain is one of the most important disaster severe weather in China.Forecasting it is not only the key point but also the difficulty in operation.The heavy rain forecasting operation in National Meteorological Center has been developed from the traditional method of subjective extrapolation based on synoptics and statistics on weather map analysis to the modern method of numerical prediction.It is emphasized that the scientific problems of rainstorm forecast are extracted from the practice of forecasting,not from literatures.It is highlighted that forecasters are the initiators of the study on scientific problems of rainstorm and the first participants in solving practical problems.The close combination of forecast and service is an important part of meteorological development with Chinese characteristics,and the important role of National Meteorological Center and the Institute of Heavy Rain and other units in the CMA in rainstorm forecast and research and China's response to sudden natural disasters are fully affirmed.It is clear that the forecast of rainstorm and other disasters is aimed at serving the people,society,economic development and national security.Some perspectives are discussed on how to improve the accuracy of rainstorm forecast from the following aspects:training and improving forecaster's scientific research and practical ability,multi-source observation data application,technology development of mesoscale numerical prediction model and ensemble model,and validation and improvement of revision ability,artificial intelligence technology application.
作者
李泽椿
谌芸
张夕迪
王月冬
代刊
张玲
LI Zechun;CHEN Yun;ZHANG Xidi;WANG Yuedong;DAI Kan;ZHANG Ling(National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081)
出处
《暴雨灾害》
2019年第5期407-415,共9页
Torrential Rain and Disasters
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41975001)
国家重点研发计划专项(2017YFC1502501,2018YFC1505704,2018YFC1505705)
关键词
中央气象台
暴雨预报
现代天气预报
预报员
准确率
National Meteorological Center
heavy rain forecast
modern weather forecast
forecaster
accuracy
