摘要
为深入了解区域农业水土资源承载能力,保障粮食安全,作者从农业水土、社会、经济、生态4方面构建农业水土资源承载力评价体系,采用投影寻踪模型和核密度分析模型,研究2006—2015年河南省农业水土资源承载力的时空分异特征。结果表明:1)河南省农业水土资源承载力主要受这些因素的影响:灌溉面积、农林水利工程投资比例、第一产业比重、农田化肥使用量、农作物受灾面积比例、人口密度、农机化程度、单位耕地面积用电量与农业水资源供需平衡指数等,它们对农业水土资源承载力的累计贡献率为81. 55%。2) 2006—2015年,河南省农业水土资源承载力逐渐降低,由2006年的-0. 06下降到2015年的-0. 20,降低了233%,研究期内,全省仅郑州、济源的农业水土资源承载力有所增加,其余城市都有不同程度的降低。3) 2006—2015年,河南省农业水土资源承载力空间分异明显:中西部最高、南部中等、东部与北部最低;同时两级分化不断加剧:高水平承载力城市由4个减少为2个,低水平承载力城市由4个增加到10个。
[Background] Soil and water resources are the key factors for agricultural production.Carrying capacity of agricultural water and soil resources( CCAWSR) is not only related to food security in regions but also affects economic development and quality of ecosystem. Relevant research may provide information for the reasonable utilization of land resources,regional sustainable development,and policy decision-making. [Methods]Taking key crops production province Henan in central China as the study area,this work built up an evaluation system of CCAWSR including agricultural water,soil,society,economy and ecology,and evaluated the temporal-spatial differentiation of CCAWSR in Henan province from 2006 to 2015 by using the multi-agent genetic algorithm( MGA),the projection pursuit model( PPM),and the kernel density estimation model( KDEM). [Results]1) The main factors affecting CCAWSR in Henan province,sorted by significance in descending order,were irrigation area,proportion of investment in agro-forestry water conservancy projects,proportion of primary industry,amount of fertilizer used in farmland,area proportion of disaster-affected crops,density of population,agricultural mechanization degree,electricity consumption per unit cultivated land area,and supply and demand balance index of agricultural water resources. 2) During the study period of 2006—2015,the level of CCAWSR in Henan province decreased from-0. 06 in 2006 to-0. 20 in 2015,reduced by 233% in total. The CCAWSR in most cities were reduced except Zhengzhou and Jiyuan,while that in Kaifeng,Xuchang and Shangqiu decreased the most dramatically and dropped up to 585%-688%. 3) From 2006 to 2015,the spatial variation of CCAWSR in Henan province was significant. The highest value of CCAWSR was in the west and central Henan,the medium value was in the south Henan and the lowest value was in the east and north Henan. The cities with high CCAWSR reduced to 2,decreasing 50%,the cities in low CCAWSR increased to 10,increasing 2. 5 times. [Conclusions] The CCAWSR generally decreased,and the spatial differentiation was obviously in Henan province. In order to promote the efficient and sustainable utilization of agricultural soil and water resources, the investment of agricultural capital and ecological protection need to be strengthened and comprehensive measures such as enlarging the proportion of effective irrigated area in farmland,increasing the application of organic fertilizers should be conducted from different aspects of resources,economy,society and ecology.
作者
文倩
李小弯
郧雨旱
李青松
孟庆香
WEN Qian;LI Xiaowan;YUN Yuhan;LI Qingsong;MENG Qingxiang(College of Resources and Environment,Henan Agricultural University,450002,Zhengzhou,China;Henan Engineering Research Center of Land Consolidation and Ecological Restoration,450002,Zhengzhou,China)
出处
《中国水土保持科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第3期104-112,共9页
Science of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
河南省基础与前沿技术研究计划项目“湿地土地利用/覆被变化与生态响应”(152300410075)
河南省哲学社会科学规划项目“河南生态文明建设测评体系研究”(15A610013)
关键词
农业水土资源承载力
投影寻踪模型
评价指标
时空分异
carrying capacity of agricultural water and soil resources
projection pursuit model
evaluation index
spatial-temporal differentiation
