摘要
中国人口流动已经由劳动力个人流动模式转变为家庭流动模式,进入了人口迁移的第二个过程,即劳动力及其家庭成员在流入城市长期定居,进行永久迁移。本文利用2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据与289个城市数据的匹配数据,研究城市公共服务对流动人口永久迁移意愿的影响,并进一步考察城市公共服务对流动人口永久迁移意愿的异质性作用。研究发现,城市公共服务显著影响了流动人口的永久迁移意愿,城市的公共服务水平越高,流动人口的永久迁移意愿越强。通过群体异质性检验发现,相对于农民工,城市公共服务对城镇流动人口永久迁移意愿的影响更强,而在农民工群体内,与第二代农民工相比,第一代农民工永久迁移意愿受城市公共服务的影响更强。进一步通过个体异质性检验发现,受教育程度越高、流入时间越长、收入水平越高、拥有自有住房、家属随迁的流动人口,对公共服务需求更大,永久迁移意愿更强。本文的政策启示是城市间的公共服务均等化可以在一定程度上缓解人口向大城市集聚趋势,进而遏制城镇化进程中出现的城镇规模两极分化,推动形成科学合理的城镇化格局。
China's floating population mobility model has changed from labor mobility to family mobility, entering second process of migration that is labor workers and their families migrate permanently. The income gap between urban and rural areas and between cities is the main reason for the first process of labor mobility. In the second process of migration, public services have become an important factor affecting the permanent migration of family. Therefore, in the context of China's floating population entering second process of migration, this paper studies the effect of urban public services on the permanent migration intention of floating population and further investigates the heterogeneity based on the matching data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey in 2017 and 289 cities. This study finds that urban public services have significantly positive effect on permanent migration intention of floating population. Further, the group heterogeneity test indicates that urban public services have stronger impact on urban floating population permanent migration intention than rural floating population. Compared with rural floating population, urban floating population has stronger ability to realize family migration and attaches more importance to urban public services, so urban floating population has stronger demand for urban public services and stronger intention of permanent migration. Within the group of rural floating population, urban public services have stronger impact on first-generation s permanent migration intention than second-generation. Compared with the second generation of rural floating population, the first generation flow into city for a longer time and have a higher degree of family migration. Thus the first generation of rural floating population has greater demand for public services and stronger intention to migrate permanently. The individual heterogeneity test suggests that individual with higher educational years, longer flow time, higher income, owning houses and flowing with family have greater demand for public services and stronger permanent migration intention. According to conclusion of this study, urban public services have a significant positive effect on permanent migration intention of floating population. However, China cities public services differ greatly in quantity and quality. China's high-quality public services are highly concentrated in big cities, while public services in small and medium-sized cities are lack and low quality. The gap in the quantity and quality of public services between cities has become an important factor for the floating population to migrate into big cities. Due to data limitations, this study does not consider county-level cities and towns. In fact, their public services gap is even larger. The policy implication of this study is that the equalization of public services between cities can alleviate the trend of population flowing into large cities, and thus curb the polarization of urban scale in the urbanization process. In order to promote the coordinated development of cities, and guide population migrate into small and medium-sized cities and small towns, the key is to improve public services in small and medium-sized cities and small towns. So small and medium-sized city s government should further optimize the structure of public financial expenditure and increase investment in public services. The central and provincial governments should increase the transfer payments for public services in small and medium-sized cities and small towns, especially for basic education and public health care related to people s livelihood. Finally,according to the advantages of different sizes cities in city group, the government should deepen the functional division of cities by guiding large city s industries, factors and population to small and medium-sized cities and small towns, and thus improve public service supply capacity of small and medium-sized cities and small towns by promoting the economic development.
作者
刘金凤
魏后凯
LIU Jin-feng;WEI Hou-kai(University (Graduate School) of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing,102488,China;Rural Development Institute, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing,100732,China)
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第11期20-37,共18页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
关键词
城市公共服务
流动人口
永久迁移意愿
影响
urban public services
floating population
permanent migration intention
effect
