摘要
在欧亚地区,由于行为体之间错综复杂的关系,该地区形成了一种类似于俄罗斯套娃的秩序模式。最外层的“套娃”是俄美在全球层面进行的竞争和合作,第二层“套娃”是俄美在欧亚地区的互动以及该地区国家与非国家行为体分别与俄美两国所形成的互动关系,第三层“套娃”则是国家与非国家行为体在国家层面形成的关系模式。欧亚地区三个层次的“套娃”是相互影响的,俄美在第一层次的互动会传导和影响第二、第三个层次,反之亦然。同样属于欧亚地区,之所以高加索和东欧次区域的套娃秩序远没有中亚次区域稳定,主要原因在于,高加索和东欧次区域的国家往往会借助西方国家的力量制衡俄罗斯,而中亚次区域的国家则倾向于对俄罗斯采取对冲或追随战略。前者容易导致高加索和东欧次区域出现以俄罗斯及其追随者(包括地区内的非国家行为体)为一方,西方国家与地区国家为另一方之间的激烈对抗;而后者则会出现俄美与地区国家联合反对非国家行为体,或俄罗斯联合地区国家反对非国家行为体以及这些非国家行为体与西方之间形成的松散联盟。由于实力对比的差异,中亚次区域出现的更多是各方行为体之间的摩擦或龃龉,很少上升到集团对抗的高度,从而能有效保证套娃秩序的稳定。
Due to the intricate relationships between actors,the Eurasian region has formed an order pattern that is similar to Matrioshka of Russia,which can be called Matrioshka order.The outermost layer of the Matrioshka order is the competition and cooperation between Russia and the United States at the global level.The second layer is the interaction between Russia and the United States in the Eurasian region and the relationships between regional states and non-state actors with Russia and the United States.The third layer is the interaction between state and non-state actors at the national level.The three layers in the Eurasian region interact with each other.The interaction between Russia and the United States at the first level affects the second and third layers,and vice versa.It is a puzzle why the Matrioshka order in Eastern European and Caucasus sub-regions is far less stable than that in Central Asian sub-regions.This article argues that the main reason is that countries in the Caucasus and Eastern European sub-region tend to use the power of Western countries to balance Russia,while countries in the Central Asian sub-region tend to adopt hedging or following strategies towards Russia.The former is likely to cause fierce confrontation between two parties:one is Russia and its followers(including non-state actors)in the Caucasus and Eastern European sub-regions;the other is the Western countries and regional countries.In the latter case,the United States and Russia would join together with the state actors within the region to oppose some non-state actors,or Russia would unite these states to fight against these non-state actors,or sometimes these non-state actors even form a loose alliance with the West.Because of its different confrontation strength,disagreement and friction between actors are more often to happen in the Central Asian sub-region,but rarely escalate into group confrontation,which effectively ensures the stability of the Matrioshka order in Central Asian sub-region.
作者
曾向红
Zeng Xianghong(Institute for Central Asian Studies and School of Politics and International Relations,Lanzhou University)
出处
《世界经济与政治》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第5期22-52,156-157,共32页
World Economics and Politics
基金
国家社科基金“一带一路”专项项目“中亚五国研究与数据库建设”(项目编号:17VDL003)
2018年度新疆智库项目“中亚安全形势的变化与‘一带’建设”的阶段性成果
兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(项目编号:18LZUJBWTD003、18LZUJBWZY004、16LZUJBWZY001)的资助
关键词
欧亚地区
套娃秩序
俄美关系
乌克兰危机
“颜色革命”
Eurasia
Matrioshka Order
Russian-American relations
generation mechanism
evolutional dynamic
