摘要
以云南省电量发展为研究对象,剖析了供给侧结构性改革的内涵,并首次从经济侧及电力侧2个角度建立供给侧改革因素的量化指标体系。基于此,通过线性与非线性结合的直接关联因素挖掘及系统性主成分分析等综合方法量化分析了供给侧改革因素对云南省电量发展的影响。结果表明,所提出的供给侧改革因素能较好地量化供给侧改革对电量发展的影响,同时所应用的分析方法能有效挖掘出云南省电量增长的主导性供给侧改革因素,为分析供给侧改革对电网规划的影响提供指导。
Taking electricity development of Yunnan province as the research object, this paper analyzes connotation of supply-side structural reform and establishes the quantitative index system of supply-side reform factors in economic side and power side for the first time. Then it quantitatively analyzes influence of supply-side reform factors on electricity development of Yunnan province by using some comprehensive analysis methods such as the direct associate factor mining method combining linearity and non-linearity and the systematic principal component method. The analysis results indicate the supply-side reform factors can well quantify influence of supply-side reform on electricity development. Meanwhile, those analysis methods can effectively excavate the dominant factor for electricity growth in Yunnan province which are able to provide guidance for analyzing influence of supply-side reform on power grid planning.
作者
王凌谊
王志敏
钱纹
彭虹桥
顾洁
时亚军
朱玥
WANG Lingyi;WANG Zhimin;QIAN Wen;PENG Hongqiao;GU Jie;SHI Yajun;ZHU Yue(Power Grid Planning and Construction Research Center of Yunnan Power Grid Co., Ltd., Kunming, Yunnan 650011, China;School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200240, China)
出处
《广东电力》
2019年第2期8-15,共8页
Guangdong Electric Power
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2016YFB0900100)
关键词
供给侧改革
指标体系
关联因素
电量增长
数据挖掘
supply-side reform
index system
associated factor
electricity growth
data mining
