摘要
在全球变暖背景下,高温热浪事件在世界各地频繁发生且大大加剧了人群致死的风险。基于3个研究地区(南京、广州和重庆)1951—2015年的逐日气象数据和2007—2013年逐日死亡数据,首先设计了热浪强度指数来量化热浪特征;其次采用分布滞后非线性模型构建高温热浪灾害下人群的脆弱性模型;最后采用蒙特卡洛仿真方法模拟随机高温热浪事件,并在此基础上开展概率风险评估与高温热浪生命保险费率的厘定。研究发现:老年人的高温热浪死亡风险与对应的费率水平是年轻人的9～28倍;其中,高温热浪费率水平与社会经济发展水平呈反比,即经济发展水平较高的地区费率水平较低。该研究成果为指数生命/健康保险产品的研发,为政府采取综合性的风险管理措施以减少公众健康风险等提供了一定的借鉴和参考。
Under the background of global warming,heat wave events have frequently occurred around the world and increased the mortality risk greatly.Based on the daily meteorological data from 1951 to 2015 and daily mortality data from 2007 to 2013 in three cities(Nanjing,Chongqing,Guangzhou),a heat wave intensity index was firstly designed to quantify the heat waves,and then a distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)was used to develop the vulnerability models of population under the heat wave events.Finally,Monte Carlo simulation method was run to assess the probabilistic heat wave risk and rated the premiums for heat wave life insurance.The results show that,the heat wave mortality risks and pure premium rates for the elder are both 9 to 28 times that of the young and the pure premium rates are inversely proportional to the level of socioeconomic development.The results in this study can provide guidance for developing weather index-based individual life/health insurance products and give support for the government to adopt comprehensive risk management measures to reduce public health risks.
作者
张领雁
张朝
侯斌
ZHANG Ling-Yan;ZHANG Zhao;HOU Bin(Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management/State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology,Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)
出处
《气候变化研究进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第5期475-484,共10页
Climate Change Research
基金
国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目(41621061)
