摘要
基于PRECIS模拟的中等温室气体排放强度RCP 4.5情景下高分辨率(50 km×50 km)气候情景估算未来(2071—2097年)相对于1981—2010年冬小麦潜在北移区的范围,选取与冬小麦生长相关的光、温、水资源的9项气候指标,分析1981—2010年中国冬小麦潜在北移区(包括辽宁省、内蒙古自治区、河北省、山西省、陕西省、宁夏回族自治区和吉林省)农业气候资源的时空变化特征,并利用DTOPSIS方法进行区域农业气候资源配置评价。结果表明:1981—2010年中国冬小麦潜在北移区辐射为东低西高,年际间辐射为减少的趋势;热量资源主要为中部的山西省较好、西部的陕西省和北部的辽宁省南部地区较差,热量资源的5项指标(年平均气温、年负积温、生长季≥0℃积温、极端低温和无霜期)均为增加的趋势;降水资源主要为东高西低,年降水量和湿日数均为减少的趋势,但冬小麦生长季内降水量则为增加的趋势。冬小麦潜在北移区农业气候资源总体配置较好的地区为辽宁省东部的丹东和岫岩等地,农业气候资源总体配置较差地区分布在内蒙古自治区的翁牛特旗、河北省的围场及山西省的右玉和五寨等地区。相较于1980—2010年,未来2071—2097年冬小麦潜在北移区内辽宁省冬小麦的适宜种植区面积减小,而冬小麦次适宜种植区面积增加,主要是由于西南部的陕西和宁夏等地区由原来的冬小麦次不适宜种植区转变为次适宜种植区。
Based on the high-resolution(50km×50km)future climate data from2071to2097simulated under a scenario of RCP45using a model of Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies(PRECIS),the northward shifting boundary of winter wheat was estimated in comparison with the data from1981to2010.Nine climatic factors including the sunlight,temperature and water sources were chosen to study the spatial and temporal variations of the agricultural climate resources in the potential northward shifting region of winter wheat including Liaoning province,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,Hebei province,Shanxi province,Shaanxi province,Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,and Jilin province.The allocation of agricultural climate resources was evaluated based on the method of Dynamic Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution(DTOPSIS).The results indicated that the radiation is high in the west and low in the east in the potential northward region of winter wheat in China from1981to2010,and the variation of inter-annual radiation has a decreasing trend.Heat resources are rich in Shanxi province in the central China and are poor in Shaanxi province in the western China,in the southern part of Liaoning province.All the five indexes of heat resource such as annual mean air temperature,annual negative cumulative temperature,cumulative temperature≥0℃during the growing season,extremely lowest temperature,and frostless season exhibit increasing trends from1981to2010.Water resources are rich in the east and low in the west.Annual precipitation and wet days decrease,while precipitation in the growing season increases from1981to2010.Agricultural climate resources in the potential northward region of winter wheat show a better allocation in Dandong,Xiuyan and other regions in the eastern part of Liaoning province,and such allocations in Wengniute Banner in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,Weichang in Hebei province,Youyu and Wuzhai in Shanxi province are poor.In comparison with the period from1981to2010,the area of adaptability region for winter wheat decreases in Liaoning province,while the area of sub adaptability region increases mainly due to the transformation of inadaptability region to sub adaptability region in Shaanxi province and NingxiaHui Autonomous Region in southwestern China region in the future northward region of winter wheat from2071to2097.
作者
张梦婷
张玉静
佟金鹤
李阔
潘婕
许吟隆
ZHANG Meng-ting;ZHANG Yu-jing;TONG Jin-he;LI Kuo;PAN Jie;XU Yin-long(Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Hainan Institute of Meteorological Science,Haikou 570203,China)
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2017年第6期73-81,共9页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
基金
"十二五"科技支撑计划课题(2013BAC09B04)
948计划重点项目(2011-G9)共同资助
关键词
光温水
RCP4.5
DTOPSIS方法
Light temperature water
RCP 4.5
Dynamic Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (DTOPSIS) method
