摘要
为量化考察雾霾污染水平与社会经济影响因素的门限效应和耦合关系,选取了近10年京津冀3省市的面板数据,运用面板门限模型,分析不同区制下PM_(2.5)减排实效与社会经济影响因素的非线性变化规律.研究结果表明:当门限变量为第三产业增加值或公共交通车辆运营数时,PM_(2.5)与其影响因素的门限效应存在且显著;当第三产业增加值小于门限值6080亿元时,继续发展工业、建筑业或增加机动车保有量都会加重雾霾污染,此时扩张公共交通是缓解雾霾的有效措施;当第三产业增加值大于其门限值时,继续发展第二、三产业可减轻雾霾,但扩张公共交通对雾霾的缓解效果略有下降,持续增长的机动车保有量逐渐成为加重雾霾污染的首要影响因素;将公共交通车辆运营数控制在其门限值附近时,PM_(2.5)减排的机会成本最低;能源消费总量的增加始终会加重雾霾污染,且其边际增量呈上升趋势.治霾对策与PM_(2.5)减排措施的制定须考虑并结合门限效应.
The causes of frequent haze in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei were truly complex,but the researches on the interrelation between haze and socio-economic factors were still lack of quantitative analysis.Considering that the interrelation under different regimes showed different change rules,the modified panel threshold regression model was applied to address different policy challenges.The results showed that the single threshold effect was significant while the added value of thetertiary industry or public transport was selected as the threshold variable.When the added value of the tertiary industry was less than the threshold value,the development of the secondary industry and the rising number of cars would increase PM2.5.Therefore,the expansion of the public transport would be an effective measure to ease the haze.When the added value of the tertiary industry exceeded the threshold value,the continued development of the secondary and the tertiary industry would reduce PM2.5,but the relief function achieved by expanding the public transport would be weakened slightly.Meanwhile the number of vehicles would become the primary factor influencing PM2.5.When the number of public transport was closer to its threshold value,the opportunity cost of PM2.5reduction would be less and the increase of energy consumption would always increase PM2.5.As there were nonlinear relations between the haze and the socio-economic factors,the policy formulation of PM2.5-reduction should be combined with the threshold effect.
作者
李云燕
殷晨曦
LI Yun-yan;YIN Chen-xi(Institute of Circular Economy, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China)
出处
《中国环境科学》
EI
CAS
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第4期1223-1230,共8页
China Environmental Science
基金
国家社科基金资助项目(15BJY059)
北京社科基金资助项目(14JGB036)
关键词
雾霾
PM2.5影响因素
门限效应
治霾建议
fog and haze
factors influencing PM2.5
threshold effect
policy advice
