摘要
经济社会发展是国家"十三五"规划的重点,建立一套既能显著反映城市经济社会发展状况,又能明确未来的经济社会发展方向的评价指标体系,成为明确规划目标、设置标准、推动城市发展的当务之急。本研究基于经济社会发展内涵的角度,从经济发展、社会民生、科技进步、资源环境四个方面海选指标,依据显著性差异和冗余信息剔除原则定量筛选指标,构建了影响显著的经济社会发展评价指标体系。文章的创新与特色:一是通过同一个指标不同评价对象的差异越大、指标信息含量越大、这个指标对评价结果的影响越显著的思路,构建指标的基尼系数值,剔除基尼系数值较小、即评价对象差异较小的指标,保证筛选后的指标体系对经济社会发展有显著影响,避免了现有评价体系中指标对评价结果区分不明显的弊端,扩展了基尼系数的应用。二是在偏相关系数大于0. 8的两个指标中,根据基尼系数值越大、这个指标鉴别能力越强的思路删除基尼系数值较小的指标,避免了现有研究在剔除冗余指标时、对鉴别能力大的指标可能被误删的不足。实证结果表明:本文构建的指标体系覆盖经济社会发展的各个方面,通过37. 1%的指标,反映了98. 7%的原始信息。既反映了与国家规划相协调,又反映了大连市中长期规划的连续性,同时还能反映国家未来的热点问题。
Socio - economic development is the key point of China＇ s ＂13th Five - Year Plan＂, and establishing a set of evalua- tion indicator system which can not only significantly reflect the status of urban socio - economic development but also clarify the future direction of soeio - economic development, is an urgent affair to clear planning goals, set up standards and promote urban development. From the perspective of connotation of socio - economic development, this paper selects indicators from economic development, people＇ s livelihood, scientific and technological progress, and resources and environment, and quantitatively screens indicators according to principles of significant difference and redundant information elimination, to establish a significant evaluation indicator system of socio - economic development. Innovation and characteristics of the paper are as follows. Firstly, according to the idea that the greater the differences among evaluation objects under the same indicator are, and the greater infor- mation content of the indicator is, the more significant the impact of the indictor on evaluation results will be, this paper con- structs Gini coefficient of the indicator and removes the smaller Gini coefficient, that is, the indicator with smaller difference a- mong evaluation objects. Secondly, between the two indicators with partial correlation coefficient greater than 0.8, according to the idea that the greater Gini coefficient value is, the better the indicator identification is, this paper removes the smaller Gini co- efficient to avoid the situation that the existing evaluation system may mistakenly delete the indicators with greater identification a- bility when eliminates the redundant indicators. Empirical results show that the indicator system constructed in this paper can cover all aspects of socio - economic development, reflecting 98.7% of the original information through 37.1% of the indicators, which not only shows the coordination with national planning, but also reflects the continuity of Dalian＇ s medium and long term plans and the future hot issues of China.
作者
孟斌
匡海波
骆嘉琪
Meng Bin;Kuang Haibo;Luo Jiaqi(Collaborative Innovation Center for Transport Studies,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,Liaoning,China)
出处
《科研管理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第11期17-26,共10页
Science Research Management
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71731003
71831002
71672016)
长江学者和创新团队发展计划(IRT_17R13)
国家社会科学基金项目(16BTJ017)
辽宁省经济社会发展研究课题(2019lslktqn-021)
辽宁省高等教育内涵发展专项资金资助项目(20110117201
20110116102)
大连市社科联重点课题(2017dlskzd034)
关键词
经济社会发展评价
评价体系
指标体系
显著性差异
economic and social development evaluation
evaluation system
index system
significant difference
