摘要
基于2014—2017年乌鲁木齐机场每半小时的航空例行天气报告(MATER)报文资料及历史航班信息数据,应用相关的数据分解预处理方法及决策树模型的搭建,建立了影响航班延误的气象因子数据库,量化了乌鲁木齐机场恶劣天气对起飞航班正常性影响的程度。结果表明:(1)2014—2017年,乌鲁木齐机场航班延误时间多集中在100 min以上,其次为50 min以下;冬季因天气原因引起的延误最为严重,夏季天气条件最为良好,春秋季节为过渡季节。(2)各季节的影响因子各有差异,秋冬季节主要影响因子均为低能见度和云高,但因子的决策顺序不同;春季风向、风速为主要决策因子,且东南大风影响下延误严重;西北大风影响下延误较轻,还需进一步判定天气因子。(3)提取出了无法起降性天气,在该类天气下航班延误严重,建议做好取消航班的准备;条件性起降天气,该类天气下航班延误较为严重,但也可依据飞机、机长等条件选择性放行;等待性起降天气,在该类天气下延误不严重,天气生消较快,航班可将飞行前工作准备就绪,等待起飞。
According to the METAR（ meteorological terminal aviation routine weather report） from 2014 to 2017 and historical flight informations at Urumqi airport,a database of meteorological factors affecting flight delays was established by using the relevant data decomposition preprocessing methods and decision tree method. This project quantified the degree of the extreme weather at Urumqi airport affecting the departing flights regularity. The following conclusions were obtained：（ 1） Flights at Urumqi airport have been delayed for more than 100 minutes,followed by less than 50 minutes. The delay caused by weather was the most serious in winter,the weather conditions were good in summer,and the spring and autumn were transitional seasons.（ 2） The main factors of each season were different,the main factors in autumn and winter were low visibility and low clouds,and the decision order of factors was different. In spring,wind speed and direction was the main decision factor,the influence of southeast wind was serious and the influence of northwest wind was light.（ 3） Based on the analysis,the suggestions of aircraft release ： If the delay is serious,it is suggested to cancel the flight. In case of delay,it was recommended to choose the weather that can fly according to the conditions of the aircraft and the captain. The weather was complicated and it was recommended to be ready for taking off.
作者
王楠
杨洪儒
周建军
曹敦波
WANG Nan;YANG Hongru;ZHOU Jianjun;CAO Dunbo(Meteorological Center of Xinjiang Airtraffic Management Bureau of CAAC,Urumqi 830016,China;Flight Service Center of Xinjiang Airtraffic Management Bureau of CAAC,Urumqi 830016,China)
出处
《干旱气象》
2018年第4期684-693,共10页
Journal of Arid Meteorology
关键词
恶劣天气
航班延误
影响因子
决策树
航班计划
severe weather
flight delay
meteorological impact factor
decision tree
flight scheduling
