摘要
为了探讨碳交易市场对养殖场沼气工程赢利性的影响,该文选取位于太湖流域江苏省的3个不同规模的养猪企业为研究对象,通过清洁发展机制CDM(clean development mechanism)方法首先计算其沼气工程减少温室气体排放的效果,然后运用成本收益方法测算不同情境下项目的盈利能力。研究结果表明:规模化养猪场沼气工程的减排效果明显,3家养猪企业减排量分别为5 236.95,4 016.95和1 333.93 t,减排比率超过55%。但是在现有条件下,3家企业的沼气工程都处于亏损状态。在政府补贴、可再生能源发电收入和停交排污费的情况下,只有规模最大的A企业的沼气工程可以盈利。如果能够进入碳交易市场,且价格达到50元/t以上,3家企业的沼气工程都能实现盈利。推进沼气工程发电上网,碳减排进入碳交易市场,将明显改善沼气工程盈利能力,实现可持续发展,从而充分发挥节能减排的功能。
Methane digesters in livestock production can serve as a renewable source of electricity, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation. However, most of methane digester systems in China were unprofitable. Newly established China’s domestic carbon offset market could provide the possibility to improve the profitability of methane digester systems. To discuss this possibility, three different sizes of pig farms located in Jiangsu province were selected to analyze the carbon emission reduction and the cost-benefit of three methane digester systems. The livestock inventory of farm A was 20 000 pigs, 50 000 pigs were sold that year. The capacity of its methane digester was 2 200 m^3 of manure. The electric generator capacity was 200 kW. The biogas production was 657 000 m^3 and the generated electricity was 592 000 kWh. The livestock inventory of farm B was 15 000 pigs; 35 000 pigs were sold that year; The capacity of its methane digester was 2 200 m^3 of manure; The electric generator capacity was 280 kW; The biogas production was 321 200 m^3 and the generated electricity was 369 000 kWh. The inventory of farm C was 5 000 pigs; 10 000 pigs were sold that year; The capacity of its methane digester was 800 m^3; The capacity of its generator was 24 kW; The biogas production was 116 800 m^3 and the generated electricity was 105 120 kWh. This study calculated the carbon emission reduction by Methodology for Small Scale Projects（AMS） III.D, and the net present value（NVP） by cost-benefit analysis with electric sales, carbon credits, and sewage charges savings through several scenarios to give insights into the profitability of the methane digester systems in China. The results showed that the methane digester systems had a significant effect on carbon emissions reduction. The baseline carbon emissions for farms A, B, and C were 9 434.37, 7 075.77, and 2 358.59 t, respectively. The carbon emissions with the methane digester systems are 4197.42, 3 058.82, and 1 024.66 t in farm A, B and C, respectively. The reduction in carbon emissions was 5 236.95, 4 016.95 and 1 333.93 t, respectively. For all three farms, the reduction rate was above 55%. However, the digester profitability of three pig farms was negative at current situation. If the carbon emission reduction can be traded in the carbon offset markets at a high enough price, for instance at 50 RMB per ton, then the system will be profitable, and thus can be sustainable. So far, except quite a few large-scale pig farms which have made contracts with foreign companies or organizations as CDM（clean development mechanism）programs, most of the pig farms with methane digesters could not access the international carbon offset markets. However, China’s newly established domestic carbon offset market can provide that possibility. More government support is needed for the market development. There are obvious scale economies in the methane digesters. The larger pig farms are more profitable methane digesters due to their larger output of methane. Even at the renewable electricity price of 0.67 RMB/kWh and with government subsidy for the methane digester systems, only the NPV of farm A, which is the largest one of the three farms, is positive in the case of the carbon price of 10 RMB/t. For small-scale farms, the construction of centralized digesters（collectively or by a contractor） will be a good option. Farms B and C are comparatively small-scale operations and their methane slurry is used in their own agricultural production.
作者
陈廷贵
赵梓程
Chen Tinggui;Zhao Zicheng(College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China)
出处
《农业工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第10期210-215,共6页
Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering
基金
上海市浦江人才计划"基于规模养殖场沼气工程的低碳农业体系环境经济效益研究"(15PJC062)
关键词
沼气
温室气体
排放控制
沼气工程
清洁发展机制
净现值
规模经济
biogas
greenhouse gases
emission control
methane digester
clean development mechanism（CDM）
net present value
economy of scale
