摘要
以1964-2015年物候观测数据和逐日气象资料为基础,运用相关分析和PLS回归法,研究了秦岭地区植物物候变化与气候变化的响应关系。结果表明:(1)1964-2015年,秦岭地区物候始末期的气候均呈干暖化趋势,且始期的暖化趋势较末期显著,物候突变后(1985年之后)尤为显著。(2)就单一因素而言,物候始末期对气温、降水、日照等气候因子的响应程度存在差异,突变前(1985年之前),除物候始期的日均温外,其他气候因子对物候的影响均不显著,但突变后影响显著,始期与末期的日均温每升高1℃,始期提前3.0 d,末期推迟12.0 d;始期的累积降水每减少1 mm始期提前1.3 d,末期的每增加1 mm末期推迟1.0 d;始期与末期的日均日照时数每增加1 h,始期提前4.3 d,末期推迟18.3 d。(3)气候因子对物候始末期的影响存在滞后效应,物候始期,气温影响的滞后时效约1~2个月,降水的滞后时效约1~3个月,而日照几乎无滞后效应;物候末期,气温的滞后时效约1~3个月,降水几乎无滞后效应,而日照影响的滞后时效约1~2个月。(4)物候始期与末期均受气温、日照、降水的综合影响,气温是影响物候变化最重要的因素,特别是同期日均温的升高对物候始期的提前及末期的推迟具有主导控制作用。
Based on the data of phenological observation and daily meteorological records during 1964-2015, we studied the relationship between plant phenology variation and climate change in the Qinling Mountains region by using correlation and Partial Least Squares（PLS）regression analysis. The results showed that：（1） In the past 52 years, the climate of the study region presented a warming-drying trend at the start and the end of plant phenophase, and the warming trend at the start of phenophase is more significant than that at the end of phenophase,especially after the phenophase abrupt change around 1985.（2） The responses of the start and the end of phenophase to the change of climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation and sunshine varied differently. Before the period of phenophase abrupt change, the responses of phenophases were not significant to all the climatic factors except for the daily mean temperature. However, after the period of phenophase abrupt change, the response of phenophases was significant to all the climatic factors. The start of phenophase advanced by 3 d and the end of phenophase delayed by 12 d with the increase of the daily mean temperature by 1℃. The start of phenophase advanced by 1.3 d with the decrease of the accumulated precipitation by 1 mm, and the end of phenophase delayed by 1 d with the increase of the accumulated precipitation by 1 mm. The start of phenophase advanced by 4.3 d and the end of phenophase delayed by 18.3 d with the increase of daily mean sunshine hours by 1 h,respectively.（3） There is a lag effect for the responses of the start and the end of phenophase to climate change. The time-lag was about 1-2 months for air temperature and about 1-3 months for the pre-period accumulated precipitation at the start of phenophase, respectively. No lag effect on the start of phenophase was observed for the sunshine hours. As related to the end of phenophase, the time-lag was about 1-3 months for the air temperature and about 1-2 months for the sunshine hours, respectively. No lag effect on the end of phenophase was found for the precipitation.（4） Both the start and the end of phenophase were jointly affected by the climatic factors, in which the air temperature was the predominant factor. Especially, the rise of the daily mean temperature plays a dominant role in advancing the start of phenophase and delaying the end of phenology.
作者
邓晨晖
白红英
高山
黄晓月
孟清
赵婷
张扬
苏凯
郭少壮
DENG Chenhui;BAI Hongying;GAO Shan;HUANG Xiaoyue;MENG Qing;ZHAO Ting;ZHANG Yang;SU Kai;GUO Shaozhuang(College of Urban and Environmental Science, Northwest University, Xi＇an 710127, China;Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, Xi＇an 710127, China;Xi＇an Meteorological Bureau, Xi＇an 710016, China)
出处
《地理学报》
EI
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第5期917-931,共15页
Acta Geographica Sinica
基金
国家林业公益性行业科研专项(201304309)~~
关键词
气候变化
物候变化
综合影响
时滞效应
秦岭地区
climate change
phenological variation
comprehensive impact
lag effect
Qinling Mountains region
