摘要
依据乌鲁木齐市2016年3月—2017年2月的PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)资料,利用统计分析,探讨了乌鲁木齐市PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)浓度的变化特征及其预测模型。结果表明,冬季PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)浓度的平均值最高(182,221 ug/m^3),春季次之(49,93 ug/m^3),夏季最低(25,70 ug/m^3),且冬季二者浓度的平均值比夏季分别大约高86%,68%。2016年11月至次年2月,每个月中PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)的污染程度在轻度污染以上的天数相比其他月份较多。PM_(10)与PM_(2.5)的日变化曲线特征呈现"双峰双谷"的特点;PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)的比值在冬季达到了60%~90%,这说明乌鲁木齐市冬季主要以PM_(2.5)污染为主;PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)之间存在极其显著的相关性,其相关性系数r=0.95。预测乌鲁木齐市颗粒物浓度时,各模型的精度从小到大依次是指数(0.75)、对数(0.80)、幂函数(0.83)、线性(0.90)、二次(0.92),其中,最大值比最小值高18%。
Based on the PMlo and PM2.5 data from March 2016 to February 2017 in Urumqi, the variation character- istics of PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations in Urumqi and its prediction model were discussed by statistical analysis. The results showed that the average concentration of PM2.5 and PM10 in winter was the highest （182 μg/m3, 221 μg/m3）, followed by spring （49 μg/m3, 93 μg/m3）, summer lowest （25μg,/m3, 70 μg/m3）. The average of the two concentrations in winter is about 86% higher and 68% higher than in summer. November to February the following year, the monthly PM2.5 and PM10 pollution levels in the number of days of mild pollution compared to other mouths more. PM10 and PM2.5, the diurnal variation curves showed the characteristics of ＂double peaks and double valleys＂. The ratio of PM2.5 to PMxo reached 60%-90% in winter, which indicated that the main pollution of PM2.5 in Urumqi;PM2.5 and PM10 there is a very significant correlation between the correlation coefficient r = 0.95. When the concentration of particulate matter in Urumqi is predicted, the accuracy of each model is from small to large that Index （0.75）, logarithm （0.80）, power function （O.g3）, linear（0.90）, secondary （0.92）,where the maximum value is 18% higher than the minimum value.
出处
《环境保护与循环经济》
2017年第12期44-48,70,共6页
environmental protection and circular economy
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51374182)
乌鲁木齐市环境综合整治规划项目(211-62190)
吐鲁番城市雾霾天气影响及研究项目(tuqx201612)
关键词
颗粒物
变化特征
预测模型
乌鲁木齐市
particulate matter
change characteristics
prediction model
Urumqi
