摘要
在经历了长期高速增长以及国际经济形势转变以后,中国经济面临着较为严重的系统性风险。中国政府对此予以高度重视,提出既防"黑天鹅",也防"灰犀牛"。文章对中国经济面临的"灰犀牛"和"黑天鹅"进行了分析,认为当前最大的"灰犀牛"是不断膨胀的整体债务和高企的杠杆率,当前的"黑天鹅"是难以预测的外部猛烈冲击。导致"灰犀牛"奔跑的两大潜在因素是经济下滑和利率攀升,而"黑天鹅"通过贸易渠道引爆"灰犀牛"是当前的最大风险。
After a long period of high-speed growth and the changing of international economic condition, China is facing a severe systemic risk. China’s government pays a great attention to the risk,and is engaging to prevent both ＂Gray Rhino＂ and ＂Black Swan＂. This paper tries to analyze the ＂Gray Rhino＂ and ＂Black Swan＂ for China’s economy. The analysis suggests that the largest ＂Gray Rhino＂ is the fast expanding debt and the high level of lever rates,and ＂Black Swan＂ comes from the unpredicted large external impact. There are two potential factors make the ＂Gray Rhino＂ run,namely,economic slowdown and interest rate hike. The biggest possible risk is that the breakout of ＂Gray Rhino＂ is induced by the ＂Black Swan＂ via the trade channel.
出处
《中国科学院院刊》
CSCD
2017年第12期1356-1370,共15页
Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences
基金
国家社科基金重大项目(15ZDA011)
国家自然科学基金重点项目(71532013)
